Spain may move in record numbers of population, but that does not mean that its demographic engine is oiled. On the contrary. If the census grows it is thanks to immigration. The latest INE studies show that every time fewer babies are bornexactly the opposite of what happens with life expectancy (continuously increasing) and deaths (stagnating). With these data on the table, the latest red light that has been lit in the national demographics is less surprising: the aging index has risen so much that it already marks a historical fact.
This is not good news for the country’s labor market.
What has happened? That Spain is increasingly a country of elderly people. It is no surprise, but that does not mean that the data that just published Adecco Foundation is striking. In its report ‘Aging and occupational ageism’ it reveals that in 2025 the “aging index” climbed to 148%.
What does that mean? That in Spain there are now 148 people over 64 years of age for every 100 under 16. Just a year ago that same index was 14.23% and if we go to the end of the 90s it was at 99.8%, which means that almost the same proportion of elderly people resided in our country as those under 16 years of age.
Is it important information? It is certainly illustrative. Both for its most obvious reading (148 people over 64 years of age for every 100 young people), and for the trend it suggests. Between 2024 and 2025, the index grew 5.7 percentage points, the largest increase since Adecco studied the phenomenon.
As if that were not indicative in itself, the 2025 result shows that the country is still deep in the aging curve that it has been tracing for years. Between 2003 and 2009 (coinciding with a period of intense migratory flow, prior to the financial crisis) the proportion of children and adolescents over the elderly seemed to recover, but this trend soon stopped and has not been corrected.
Is this a surprise? No. The Adecco study is new, but it is based on previous data from the INE that already suggested the same idea. In November the statistical institute published a balance on ‘Natural Population Movement’ in which three major trends were made clear. The first, the decline in the birth rate. In 2024, 318,005 births were registered in Spain, 1% less than in 2023 and far from the 427,595 recorded by the INE in 2024. On the contrary, life expectancy has continued to grow since the pandemic to stand at 84.01 years.
If we add to the above that the number of deaths has also remained stable, the conclusion is clear and connects with Adecco’s calculations: fewer young people, more old people, greater imbalance, tipping the balance in favor of the latter. If at the beginning of the century there were practically the same number of people of retirement age as there were young people under 16, today it is much easier to meet the former on the street than the latter.
Does it happen throughout the country? No. Not at least with the same intensity. Adecco has dedicated itself to calculating the aging index of each autonomous community and its results demonstrate the profound differences that exist at the territorial level. The oldest region is Asturias, with an indicator of 265.3%. That is, there are 265 people over 64 for every 100 under 16. Galicia (231.6) and Castilla y León (230.7) follow in the ranking. At the opposite pole are Melilla (60.4), Ceuta (74.5) and Murcia, which debuts in the ‘red zone’ with an index of 102.7%.
And what does it matter? With the index Adecco does not want to cover only a statistical curiosity. Its objective is to launch a warning that directly affects the economy and the productive capacity of Spain: the pool of young population, who is about to join the labor market or will do so in the short or medium term, is increasingly lower compared to the sector of the population about to retire or who is already collecting their pension. And that is a problem.
“Spain faces a structural paradox: while the population ages and the workforce becomes older, the labor market continues to underutilize professionals over 45 years of age and perpetuate the barriers that limit their employability,” warns Adecco Foundationwhich recalls that long-term unemployment affects 34% of the unemployed in Spain, a percentage that skyrockets to 48.5% if we talk about those over 45 years of age.
To do? The organization is clear: rethink deep-rooted ideas. “The aging rate does not stop growing and this demographic reality places our country before a structural challenge that does not allow further delays,” reflect Francisco Mesonero, general director of the Adecco Foundation. “In this context, occupational ageism is revealed to be an obsolete phenomenon and a profound contradiction. Spain cannot afford to do without millions of older professionals.”
There are those who warn in any case that Adecco’s calculations must be handled with some caution for a simple reason: it is based on two very large, different population groups and in which diverse realities are mixed. “We have a new old age that is neither short nor homogeneous and it must be conjugated in the plural because we cannot put a 64-year-old and an 85-year-old in the same bag, just as a 15-year-old cannot be equated with a 35-year-old,” commented recently in The Vanguard Dolores Puga, demographer and CSIC researcher.
Images | Mark Timberlake (Unsplash) and Adecco Foundation
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