Spain faces an unprecedented challenge with respect to generational relay of the current active population due to demographic aging. According to a recent one Study of the Observatory of the Professional Training of Caixabank Duiza and Orkestra Basque Institute of Competitiveness, in Spain there is a deficit of almost 3.5 million people under 30 years in the employed population to compensate for the weight of the population over 50 years of age than He will retire In the coming years.
“There is a true demographic fire, only that it is not unforeseen, we have seen it on and extend,” declares to The avant -garde Mónica Mosa, researcher and co -author of the study. This mismatch among young people under 30 and over 50 years old It has doubled In the last decade, putting at risk the sustainability of many companies and economic activities for shortage qualified labor.
Demographic differences in the working population. As the report points out, for each young person under 30 there are three workers over 50. This imbalance will make, for example, in a decade this proportion He moves To the price for retirement benefits, where a worker would support the benefits of several pensioners, increasing pressure on the pension system.
In communities such as Asturias, for every 100 young people under 30 there are 257 over 65 years old, while in Castilla y León and Galicia this proportion exceeds 220 greater than 65 per 100 young people. These regions, characterized by being rural and with a High depopulation ratethey have added difficulties to attract and retain young labor in fundamental professions such as agriculture, livestock or forest agents, pillars of their local economy.
The low birth rate. The main trigger for this situation is decline Birth rate in Spainwhich in the last ten years has dropped by 27%. The average number of children per woman is well below the necessary to maintain the population, which has gone from 9.11 born by a thousand inhabitants in 2013 to 6.61 births per thousand inhabitants in 2023. However, this rate varies considerably depending on the origin of the families, varying from the 8.30 births per thousand inhabitants of Spanish mothers at 16.05 of foreign mothers.
Likewise, the study includes that the number of children per woman has also dropped from 1.27 in 2013 to 1.12 in 2023, being equally lower among Spanish women (1.09 children) than among foreign women (1.28 children). These last figures are a clear risk to the sustainability of the generational relief in the workplace, taking into account that at least 2.1 children per woman would be necessary to guarantee it.
The impact goes by sectors. The shortage of young people especially affects sectors with traditional and technical trades such as electricity, plumbing, carpentry, manufacturing industry, construction or repair of vehicles. In this group of artisans and qualified workers record a deficit of around 500,000 young people to occupy the vacant positions left by the workers who retire in the next decade.
In sectors such as public administration, difference is even more marked: For every 100 officials under 30 there are 690 over 50 years. This is one of the reasons why the Public Administration has stepped on the accelerator in the call for oppositions in which record figures have been reached.
In the opposite pole, sectors linked to leisure and culture, Information and communications and hospitality are not affected by this mismatch in the generational relief since they attract a greater number of young people, contrasting with the low attraction of young professionals in industrial and administrative activities.
Labor scarcity will impact the economy. The regions with the greatest presence of the most affected professional sectors such as Andalusia (Agriculture and Livestock) Catalonia and Madrid (industrial sectors), show the largest deficit figures of professionals in absolute numbers approaching (and even exceeding) close to half a million people.
These communities stand out as the main focuses where the lack of generational relief will be more critical for the local and national economy since its active population percentage with respect to Spain’s total is also greater.
Professional training as a key to relay. The report indicates The importance of professional training (FP) as a fundamental solution To face this deficit of new professionals in industrial sectors. According to their authors, the greatest imbalances are seen in the average grade, where there is a lower attraction of young people with respect to those of higher degree.
In general terms, there is a lower generational gap among people occupied with FP. This is due to the ease of access to the labor market of young people studying professional training. However, the different branches of professional training must keep attracting young people during the next decades to balance the current deficit.
On the other hand, the lack of young people trained in the care sector, whose growth is linked to demographic aging, and the talent migration of the abroad health sector complicate the balance in the generational relief. The report underlines the importance of achieving “young people stay in the territory” and connect their training with the business fabric to ensure effective relief.
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