be the Japan of Europe

2024 has not been a good year for the Italians. Not at least if we talk about demography. Although the flow of immigrants has allowed him to soften the blow, the country has seen how its fertility rate fell to historical minimumsthe families continued to shrink, the average age of the population kept their escalation until approaching the psychological barrier of the 50 years and the exodus of citizens who decide to seek their future abroad increased 36%depriving the nation especially of qualified young people, something that It is already worried to its central bank.

Italy It is not the only country that supports the icy winds of the Demographic winterbut his drift already threatens to turn it into the Japan of the old continent.

Birth, downstairs. A few weeks ago the National Statistics Institute of Italy (Istat) public A global balance on the demography of 2024 that leaves a few joys and the occasional disappointment. The country closed the year with 370,000 births, bad news twice. First because it represents a decrease of 2.6% with respect to 2023 and aggravates the fall of its birth rate. Second, because it leaves its fertility index in historical minimums: 1.18 children per woman. The previous record, of 1.19, had been reached in 1995.

A structural problem. For Istat that loss of babies is worrisome because it relieves more than a simple fall in the fertility index. In his opinion Boils with the loss of men and women of age of having children.

“The relevance of the structural aspect is evident,” he warns. “If the female population of productive age (15-49 years) is considered, it has gone from 14.3 million EM January 1994 to 11.4 in January 2024”. In the case of men, the group in the same age strip has dropped from 14.5 million to just 11.9. Hence, the current fertility rate of 1.18 is much more problematic than that of 1995.

50 -year way. Another of the problems that Italy Lidia is the aging of its population, a phenomenon on which He has warned Also Eurostat. According to the Italian agency, at the beginning of 2025 the average age of the population that resides in Italy already was already 46.8 years, two tenths more than a year ago. The data that Eurostat draws an even more unfortunate panorama: they place the median age in 48.7 yearsthe second largest fact of the entire EU. It only exceeds Monaco, where it marks 50.5 years. The European mean It is 44.7.

In Italy children (under 14 years old) represent 11.9% of the total and the population of working age 63.4%. Both stripes experienced setbacks in 2024, unlike what happened with the group of citizens who exceed 65 years: they suppose 24.7% of the total, four tenths more than a year ago. Among them also grow the octogenarians and nonagenarians. If nothing changes, There are those who calculate That in 2040 there will be five million people less in working age.

THE OTHER CHALLENGE: The Exodus. Italy is facing another problem that has made the alarms of experts and authorities: Emigration. Last year 191,000 people left the country, 20.5% more than in 2023. Most of them, about 156,000, were also Italians who chose to look for life abroad, which represents a remarkable increase with respect to 2023. The rest (around 35,000) are Expats of other nationalities, such as the Romanian, who had been residing in Italy for some time and for one reason or another they decided to make their bags.

Looking for life out. “They are forceful figures, although they could fall short according to some analysts, such as Federico Fubini, who recently published A column in Corriere in which he remembered that there are Italians who have abandoned the country without processing the change of residence, so the phenomenon could be greater.

“More and more Italians opt for the path of self -determination and leave the country for situations that consider better,” Point out. In his opinion, the current migratory phenomenon is not comparable to that of the last decade, when the loss of population was basically motivated by the lack of employment in Italy. “Today there is and, instead, people, mostly young, will look for it in other places.”

“Create opportunities”. That last nuance, that of young people who decide to leave, is fundamental. So much, in fact, that he has led the governor of the Bank of Italy, Fabio Panetta, to ask that measures be taken to retain talent and human capital. “It is necessary to create attractive employment opportunities for the many Italians who leave the country in search of better perspectives,” warned a few days ago in statements collected by Financial Times.

The newspaper remember That between 2014 and 2023 they left the country more than one million Italians and more than a third of them were young people between 25 and 35 years old, many of them with university degrees. During that period they made the reverse journey (natives who choose to return) many less young. Of them only 50,000 had higher training. Istat himself calculates that the migratory balance of graduates has been negative, with a net loss of 97,000.

A balance in red numbers. With 370,000 births and 651,000 deaths, Italy closed 2024 with a negative natural balance of 281,000 people. That loss managed to soften it in part thanks to the arrival of people from abroad. Although his flow fell with respect to the previous year, he remained at 435,000 (including about 53,000 repatriated), enough to compensate for the escape of Italians to other countries and leave a positive general migratory balance. The country fired the year with a census of some 58.9 million of residents.

Japan’s example. Italy is not the only country that crosses demographic turbulence. In fact, Spain has reached a population record (49.1 million) It is thanks to the increase in the foreign population, which compensates for the decrease in the native. The puncture of birth and gradual aging are trends that go beyond sociology or simple statistics to directly connect with politics, economy and well -being.

The best example Japan leaves itthat after decades with its gripado demographic engine he now faces what he has baptized as “Problem 2025”an aging level that represents a socioeconomic challenge for the nation.

Images | Ennio Berti (UNSPLASH) and Istat

In Xataka | Throughout Europe, birth rate collapses as soon as women begin to earn more money. Except in Sweden