The question is not how many will you buy, but why do you want us to know?

The news comes from Mercadona itself: During 2026, it will market “more than 14 million kilos of avocados of Spanish origin.” That is 18% more than last year and, in addition, it represents 95% of all avocados that will be sold until April.

And yes, this seems good news for Trops, Surfruit or Avocoop (agri-food cooperatives in the sector); But the relevant question is why is Mercadona interested in making all this clear?

Clarifying the data. Mercadona’s statement comes now that the avocado campaign begins in Spain and its 95% commitment extends until April, when the campaign ends. That is, in part, it is a defensive advertisement.

For years, large distributors have been criticized for not selling national products and sometimes it is true: it is often cheaper to buy outside than inside and many customers do not show any preference for national products.

However, it is not always a fair complaint: if we want to have avocados all year round in supermarkets, most of it has to come from outside. With these types of adsthe Valencian chain (and the rest) tries to “minimize” the reputational damage linked to the sale of Moroccan, Peruvian or Chilean avocados.

“But they are going to buy 18% more.” It’s true. And the company explains that it is due to the rise in demand and its commitment to the national product. However, we cannot ignore that we are coming from campaigns very affected by the lack of water in the main producing areas of the country.

Only in Andalusia the production fell in 2023/24 34% compared to 2019/20. It is true that in 24/25 production recovered (it went from 56,000 tons to 75,000) and that in 2025/26, thanks to water and the entry of new plantations, it is expected a growth of 25% with respect to the previous year.

That is to say, Mercadona’s 18% is worthy, of course; but it is not particularly striking: there is now avocado to cover demand and at a lower price than in recent years.

The problem of “national origin.” Mercadona’s move is also dovetailed with another underlying movement. Spain has realized that the hyperdependence of the national market on Andalusia is a problem. After the droughts of recent years, Valencia has gained weight and even Asturias (that already leads the production of kiwis) is considering betting on “green gold”.

That restructuring of the agricultural sector is key. Because Spain is a great agri-food producer, yes; but even more so, it is a giant in the international distribution of imported products. And, although it may not seem like it, both things They are more related than it seems: They are communicating vessels and if one fails the other suffers.

What we can expect. This is, without a doubt, the biggest problem: that in the midst of this climate chaos, regulatory and sociopolitical It is very difficult to make long-term estimates.

And yet, there is no worse time to not make decisions. Therefore, the fact that large distribution chains have the Spanish agricultural fabric in mind is excellent news even if we take into account that, well, there is a ton of marketing in all of this.

Image | Ankit Karnany | Eddie Pipocas

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