Although His efforts, tax advantagesyou aid, incentives And even his effort for campaign In favor of love and marriages, China is not able to solve what seems to be its Great Achilles heel: Demography. 2024 closed with a Very light rebound of births, but not even that prevented the country from losing population due to Third consecutive year. As if that were little Beijing recorded two data that darkens its horizon: a descent pronounced in marriages and an increase in divorces.
Apart from its impact on the country’s demographic pyramid, the figures tell us about something else: the speed (and clarity) with which Chinese society is being transformed.
Weddings, in minimal. The figures who has just revealed the Ministry of Civil Affairs leave little margin for interpretations: in China The nuclear family loses weight. And at a good pace. In 2024, 6.1 million couples were given ‘yes in the country, nefarious fact for three reasons.
The first is that it supposes 20.5% less that in 2023. The second is that Mark The historical minimum In official statistics, which start in 1986. In other words, never so few couples had passed through the altar in the Asian giant. At least throughout the last 38 years.
Is it a novelty? At all. And that is the third reason why the link data is a headache for Beijing: it results in A trend that the Chinese authorities observe For a long time. 2024 is not the first year in which ‘click’ the bridal statistics. On the contrary. Break with the very brief wedding rebound in 2023 and takes up a downward trend that dates back to 2013.
The bad fact of recent months allows us to think that the increase in marriages of 2023 was basically fruit that many couples who had had to postpone their weddings because of their weddings because of Pandemia. After all, 6.1 million links may seem like many, but they do not even half of those nearby 13 million marriages that were recorded in the country 12 years ago.
Wedding Question … and Divorcios. It’s not just that less couples get married. The thing is They separate more. In his case the trend is not so clear; but that the ruptures increase (even slightly) while weddings fall to mark a historical minimum aggravates Beijing’s concerns. Throughout 2024 they requested the dissolution of their marriage 2.6 million of couples, which represents 28,000 more that in 2023.
The data is interesting in itself, but it is even more significant in its context. Divorces do not grow without more. They do it despite the efforts of the Chinese authorities to achieve the opposite: Create couples, Promote marriages and even slow down the separations.
Since January 2021 the Chinese cannot be divorced without more. The law forces them to go through A “reflection” period Of 30 days, a period that begins to run after the request for separation and during which any of the parties can be back, which puts the counter again.
And why that effort? This graph Statista helps to understand the effort of the Chinese authorities for fostering marriages: over the last years the birth rate and the link seems to go hand in hand, both downstairs.
The CNN chain remember In addition, social norms and even government regulation complicate that Chinese couples who have not married have children. And diminishing birth is one of the great challenges ahead of Beijing, just as it is For Tokyo either Seoul.
“A demographic Achilles heel”. During An interview Recent with Reuters, Yi Fuxian, demographer of the University of Wisconsin-Madison, spoke directly of the “Demographic Achilles heel” of China and warned that if the country fails to correct its birth crisis, you can see “ruined” their “political political ambitions and economic “.
After all, birth has a clear economic, social and political drift and faces China to the complicated perspective of facing A aged futurewith hundreds of millions of pensioners throughout the country.
Data tyranny. It may seem exaggerated, but the data is clear. After growing at a good pace For decadesChina entered a first phase in which its population He stagnated to which he has followed, already in recent years, another stage of clear decrease.
In 2022 the country registered Your first loss of inhabitants since the 1960s and in the last triennium he has maintained the negative sign. Not just that. The country has seen how It was reduced The active population, between 16 and 59, while the elderly increased.
Beyond birth. Chinese statistics do not tell us only a birth crisis. In a way they show deep changes at the social level, reflecting a country in which marriages lose weight, divorces and young people increase simply They prioritize other aspects of his life.
“Energy is limited, so I eliminate what exhausts me most. The first? The quotes,” I confessed recently to South China Morning Post Owen Cao, a 22 -year -old Chinese who combines his first postgraduate course with responsibilities at the student club and his hobbies.
A (brief) demographic relief. Chinese authorities have deployed a ambitious measures battery To reverse the situation that includes tax advantages for couples, better health care to pregnant women and even promoteIn classrooms the importance of couples and motherhood.
In 2024 the country registered 9.54 million birthsmore than the 9.02 million of 2023, but still its population descended and there is doubt about how much of that increase responds to the influence of COVID and beliefs on The Dragon Year. The fall in the number of marriages to historical minimums does not paint a flattering future.
Images | Kristoffer Trolle (Flickr), LK MJ (Flickr) and Statista
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