the appearance of hundreds of holes in its deserts confirm it

In the midst of the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union learned that the best way to avoid a nuclear war was to convince the enemy that it could never destroy all its weapons in one fell swoop. Half a century later, hundreds of new holes appeared in the deserts of China They suggest that Beijing has reached exactly the same conclusion.

The revolution was underground. Over the past decade, much of the attention on Chinese military power has focused on their stealth fighterstheir aircraft carrier or their hypersonic missiles. However, the deepest and potentially most consequential change has occurred far from the spotlight, in the western deserts of the country.

There, satellite images have revealed the appearance of hundreds of new silos for nuclear missilesa transformation that many analysts consider the largest expansion of China’s strategic arsenal in its entire history and that marks a radical change in the way Beijing conceives its nuclear deterrent.

Chinese deserts and silos. The turning point came in 2021, when researchers specializing in open source intelligence they detected the construction of huge silo fields near Yumen, Hami and Ordos.

Only those three areas add up to around of 320 new installationsan unprecedented figure for a country that had historically maintained a relatively small arsenal. The United States believes that all those silos they will end up housing missileswhile other experts suggest that some could remain empty to make it difficult for an adversary to know which contain real weapons and which are decoys.

Philosophy change. For decades, China’s nuclear strategy was based on having a limited number of missiles capable of guaranteeing retaliation if attacked. Now the objective seems different: increase the size of the arsenal, disperse it and make it much more difficult to destroy in a first hit.

we have told before. The combination of hardened silos, mobile launchers and new technologies seeks to ensure that, even after a massive attack, China retains capacity enough to answerthus reinforcing the deterrent effect of its strategic forces.

A mobile and prepared force. Technological evolution reflects this doctrinal change. The old DF-5fed with liquid fuel and deployed in silos, continue in service after several modernizations, but the leading role has passed to the DF-31 family and, above all, to the DF-41.

These missiles use solid fuel, can travel on large launch vehicles and come into action much faster, greatly reducing their vulnerability. Additionally, several versions incorporate multiple independent warheads (MIRV), allowing a single missile to attack several different targets.

The entire Chinese nuclear triad. Land-based missiles are only part of the plan. Beijing is also strengthening its naval component with class submarines. Type 094 and the future Type 096equipped with missiles JL-2 and the more advanced JL-3, which will allow attacking the US continental territory from waters much closer to China.

At the same time, the development of the H-20 stealth bomberintended to complete a fully operational nuclear triad, that is, the ability to launch nuclear weapons from land, sea and air.

Complicating any defense. Modernization is not just about making more missiles. China works in hypersonic glide vehicles capable of maneuvering at high speed after being launched, making it extremely difficult to intercept.

He new DF-61 It could become the first Chinese intercontinental missile designed to use this type of weapon. Added to this are penetration systems, improvements in precision and mobile platforms capable of hiding and moving continuously, increasing uncertainty for any adversary.

A new stage. The Pentagon estimates that China already has more than 600 operational nuclear warheads and could exceed the 1,000 before 2030. More important than the number is the speed of the transformation: in just a few years, Beijing has gone from maintaining a relatively modest nuclear force to building a structure comparable, in some aspects, to that of the other great atomic powers.

The hundreds of silos that have been appearing silently in the desert are physical proof of that change and a reminder that China’s most important military revolution may not have occurred in the air or at sea, but underground.

Image | FAS 2021, Google

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