A “bubble” in your defense

A little over a decade ago, the United States’s fleet of aircraft carriers looked back and did not see anyone absolutely. There was not a single nation that approached the operational and quantitative supremacy of the Navy. And yet, just ten years later something has changed. In 2024, its fleet proved to remain the first of the league to face massive drones and missile attacks at the Red Seabut when he looks back now, Someone approaches every pill: China.

The data that changes everything. In power shown by the United States in the Red Sea it is possible thanks to The powerful fleet of 11 USed of the US Navythat dominates both the Atlantic and the Pacific. However, a new rival is emerging quickly: China, which happened not to have a single carrier just over a decade ago To currently have three and an ambitious expansion plan with a room on the road that could be of nuclear propulsion.

Historically, China has been a terrestrial power, but on its way to become a naval superpower, it has prioritized the modernization of its fleet. From Liaoning’s acquisition in 2012a rebuilt Soviet helmet, until The launch of the advanced Fujian in 2022the nation has not only shown that it can build aircraft carrier, but can design and operate them independently. Plus: It has a defensive bubble that gives it an advantage.

2049, the date marked in red. The Chinese objective is clear: Have at least seven carriers for 2049centenary of the Chinese revolution and date on which Beijing has set, a priori, his goal of reunification with Taiwan, by peaceful means (or military).

Currently, the Navy of the Popular Liberation Army (Plan) already exceeds the United States Navy in number of ships, With more than 370 vessels against the 295 Americans. No doubt, if China manages to expand its fleet of aircraft carriers and improve its technology to the current rhythm, it could directly challenge US naval supremacy in the Indo-Pacific.

The future of the war of aircraft carrier. If the United States and China maintain their current development rates, the 2040s will be a turning point in the global naval balance. The United States will deploy its sixth generation hunting NEXT GENERATION Air Dominance (NGAD)designed to overcome the weaknesses of the F-35 and offer greater scope and attack capacity. With a mix F-35C and NGAD, the American fleet will have an advantage in long-range air combat.

China, meanwhile, will develop the J-35 hunting, its version of the F-35, and possibly introduce a new naval combat plane (J-XX). It will also have Your own KJ-600 early alert planeequivalent to E-2 Hawkeye.

A different strategy. Unlike the United States Navy, where aircraft carriers are the central axis of their maritime strategy, China does not seem to depend on them as the cornerstone of their naval power. Instead of using them to project power globally, The Navy of the Popular Liberation Army (Plan) operates its aircraft carriers within a highly protected environmentprotected by his advanced ANTI-ACCESSING/DENion of Area Strategy (A2/AD in English).

This defensive system has been Designed to master the first island chain (which includes Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines) and neutralize any attempt at US military intervention in the region. In other words, Chinese aircraft carriers are not, for themselves, a global naval supremacy tool. They are, rather, force multipliers inside the defensive shield A2/ADwhich allows them to operate with greater security and support Beijing’s growing influence on the Indo-Pacific.

The expansion of aircraft carriers in the strategy. Counted in The National Interest That the development of the China aircraft fleet has been rapid and methodical. What began with the Liaoning, that old rebuilt Soviet helmet and even belittled by the naval powers, has become an increasingly advanced and ambitious naval construction program.

As we said at the beginning, China currently has three aircraft carriers. Namely: the Liaoning (2012), and the first of its class mainly used for training and tests. Then it is The Shandong (2019)an improved version of the Liaoning, but even with technological limitations, such as its ramp take-off system (skii-jump), and Finally the Fujian (2022)the most advanced so far, With electromagnetic catapults (EMALS) and a design that brings it closer to the standards of US carriers.

A room on the road. The fourth aircraft carrier, whose launch is planned in the coming years, I could mark a milestone for China if it really is nuclear propulsionwhich would significantly increase its autonomy and capacity of operations away from the Chinese coast.

The key: a bubble. The concept of anti-access/denial of area (A2/AD) is based on The combination of long -range missiles, advanced radars and electronic war systems to create a defensive shield that hinders the entry of enemy forces into a specific region. In this regard, China has developed a sophisticated A2/AD network in the Indo-Pacificusing anti -men’s ballistic missiles (as the DF-21D and The DF-26), Advanced Air Defense Systems, Silent Submarines and Electronic Interference Technology to deter and neutralize the US military presence in the region.

In fact, thanks to this kind of bubble Of defense, Chinese carriers do not need to operate independently or venture away from their coasts. Instead, They can move with relative security within the protected areausing its airplanes to reinforce Beijing control over Taiwan and the South China Sea.

For its part, United States aircraft carriers do not have this level of protection in the Western Pacific. While the American navy remains the most powerful naval force in the world, its attack groups of aircraft carriers can be threatened when operating within the radius of the Chinese missiles, which exposes them to a much greater risk.

Strategic impact Thus, Beijing’s strategy completely changes the rules of the game in the Pacific. Instead of competing directly with the United States in the amount of aircraft carrier and its power projection capacity, China is building a naval force designed to make US carriers less effective Within its sphere of influence.

This inevitably leads to an assumption: If a conflict broke out in the region, the United States would face great difficulties To operate near the Chinese Costa without suffering from mass attacks. In contrast, Chinese aircraft carriers, protected by his bubble A2/AD, they could operate with relative freedomreinforcing Beijing’s aerial and maritime presence without directing directly challenging the US Navy on the high seas.

The American response. The Chinese advantage in A2/AD, therefore, raises a dilemma for the Pentagon. While the United States continues to lead in terms of operational capacity and experience in combat combat, His domain in the Pacific is no longer absolute. That’s why They are developing new strategies as the use of dispersed forces to prevent China from destroying large naval groups with a single attack, new hypersonic missiles and electronic warfare systems to neutralize bubble A2/AD, or the integration of advanced drones and sixth generation airplanes to increase the scope and lethality of US forces without exposing their carrier to direct danger to their carriers.

However, time and facts in the last 10 years They seem to play in favor of Chinawhere every year that passes, its A2/AD network becomes more sophisticated … and its fleet of aircraft carks does not stop growing.

Image | Goodfon, Baycrest

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