For years, detractors of the energy transition have clung to a seemingly immovable argument: the sun and the wind are intermittent, and saving that energy for when it is not blowing or it is night is economically unviable. This mismatch between supply and demand generates the phenomenon known as “duck curve”where solar energy is abundant during the day but drops drastically just when nighttime consumption skyrockets.
To balance this balance, battery storage stands as the definitive solution. Today, that last bastion against the total viability of clean energy has just collapsed. The last piece of the renewable puzzle now fits, but its lowering price has uncovered a much more complex problem: a fierce geopolitical race to control the materials that make this technological miracle possible.
The economic barrier has fallen. If we take a look at the data, the graph of the cost of batteries shows a historic plummet. According to the report Levelized Cost of Electricity 2026 of BloombergNEFstoring energy in four-hour projects is today 27% cheaper than a year ago, bottoming out at $78 per megawatt-hour (MWh). Never since records began in 2009 has saving electricity been so accessible. And this positive anomaly is supported by three very clear pillars:
- The reduction in prices of battery packs.
- Increased competition between different manufacturers.
- Excess manufacturing capacity coming from the electric vehicle market.
Fuels pay the price. While clean technologies become cheaper, fossil fuels suffer the opposite effect. Driven by the voracious electrical demand of new data centers, new gas plants have seen their equipment become more expensive. In fact, the report of bloombergNEF highlights that the global cost of electricity for combined cycle gas turbines has risen by 16%, reaching a record of 102 dollars/MWh.
The market has already ruled: in the United States and Canada, wind energy has displaced gas as the cheapest source for new generation, while renewables already exceed the operating costs of existing fossil fuel plants in key Asia-Pacific markets.
The elephant in the room. If global costs have plunged, it is largely because China has flooded the market with massive overproduction. This overwhelming figure, however, was born of a systemic dysfunction. As the analyzes from two years ago warnedChinese provincial regulations forced solar parks to install batteries by law, which led to the accumulation of systems that were barely used due to the lack of incentives in the electricity market.
Beijing achieved its goal: scaling production to a level unattainable by the rest of the world. Today, in 2026, that inertia has mutated into an industrial tsunami. According to the recent report of BloombergNEFthe current price collapse has been accelerated by a new factor: excess manufacturing capacity coming from the electric vehicle market. The fierce competition between Chinese manufacturers and the overproduction of car batteries has ended up drastically making large-scale systems cheaper, forever transforming the economics of the global electrical grid.
The “brain” of the network and the gallium trap. Having millions of cheap batteries is useless without a system that manages them. Storing energy is only the first step; To feed it into the grid in a stable manner, immense power inverters are needed. These devices function as the electronic “brain” of the facility, composed of logic modules and high-performance chips that decide in milliseconds when to absorb surpluses and when to release them. And it is here, in semiconductors capable of withstanding these extreme voltages without melting, where the real battle is fought.
For decades, the West operated under a mirage. As analyst Gillian Tett points outWestern elites assumed that making things was low-margin “dirty work” that could be outsourced. They became obsessed with software as China quietly built the physical infrastructure of the 21st century. Today, Beijing has what investor Craig Tindale calls “processing sovereignty”: controls 90% of rare earths and an overwhelming 98% of gallium. The latter is that irreplaceable strategic metal for advanced semiconductors that manage energy. After flooding the market for years to suffocate Western mining, China imposed export controls, causing its price to triple to reach historical records above $1,500 per kilo.
From “red mud” to chips: the Western counterattack. For the United States, this is already a matter of national survival. The response of Washington and its allies has been to design an ambitious plan to become independent from Beijing by extracting gallium directly from industrial waste, known as “red mud”.
The strategy It is an intercontinental triangle:
- In Australia, the Wagerup refinery has teamed up with the US and Japan to filter gallium from bauxite processing, aiming to cover 10% of global demand without opening new mines.
- In Louisiana, the Gramercy plant has received $150 million from the Pentagon to process its own aluminum waste to meet total U.S. demand.
But the economic risk is enormous. Experts warn that the gallium market is dangerously small, and if Western production increases too quickly, prices could collapse. To protect these investments against dumping Chinese, the White House has deployed the Project Vaulta strategic reserve of 12 billion dollars.
The human bottleneck. Even with all the money on the table, the West facing a problem that cannot be solved by printing banknotes: the “human bottleneck”. After decades of deindustrialization, Western engineers and workers who knew how to operate complex chemical plants and foundries have retired. Reconstructing that physical sovereignty requires expert hands that, today, are scarce on this side of the world.
However, in this interdependent world, China It also has a critical vulnerability. Despite its monopoly on materials, its industry is still forced to import almost all of the advanced logic modules that control turbines and networks in real time. Beijing has the factories and the minerals, but the West still has the “brains” and the fine chemistry that makes complex systems work.
A future with many edges. The economic viability of a world powered 100% by renewables is already an irrefutable reality. Batteries are no longer the economic brake on the transition. However, we have escaped the geological tyranny of oil only to discover a new irony: control of the sun and wind no longer depends on the climate, but on who wins the war for semiconductors and masters the minerals that will light the future.
Image | rawpixel
GIPHY App Key not set. Please check settings