Tariffs are ballasting imports from China to EUU and stir a ghost: empty shelves

Things do not go as planned in the port of Los Angeles, one of The great terminals of US containers trafficking. Its responsible expected the arrival of 80 ships throughout May, but 20%have been canceled, according to He explained this week to the CNN Gene Seroka chain, its executive director. And it is not the only drop in activity that has suffered. “This week we have dropped about 35% compared to the same period last year,” he adds.

The collapse really has little mysterious. It comes after him Tariff pulse Between Washington and Beijing and the application of tariffs to many other countries. Of what Start to speak Now in the US it is What will come After that drop in imports and, most importantly, if it will translate into price increases and empty shelves.

More tariffs, less reservations. The sector looked to come. The commercial war initiated by Trump and its tariff climbing with Beijing It soon perceived In port operators and shipping companies, especially in those that operate the Transatlantic routesbetween the US and Asia.

In April the CEO of Flexport He warned that maritime container reserves from China to the US had collapsed 60% during the three weeks following the entry into force of new fees. And in the ports of southern California (keys in commerce with China) the traffic of cargueros of the Asian giant deflated 29% between the end of April and early May. That was the prelude. The big question was … What would come later?

A percentage: 50%. After several weeks and without an agreement between Washington and Beijing that allows the 145% tariff To Chinese exports, a “puncture” in the flow of goods are already found at the US docks. A good part of the ships that arrive on the other side of the Pacific (the first after the climb of the tariffs) do so half empty. It recognizes it for example the executive director of the port of Los Angeles, who Talk about a fall In China imports aboard ships of more than 50%.

“And these ships are the first to be affected by the tariffs that were imposed on China and other places last month,” Remember Seroka. “That is why the load volume is so low.” There are importers who have directly canceled orders because US companies are not willing to take care of tariffs and retailers who have chosen to maintain merchandise in Chinese warehouses.

The most predictive. The fear of the trade war in fact led not a few companies to advance their imports to avoid tariffs, which explains that the US trade deficit increased 14% in March until it is located in 140.5 billion dollars. In April, container imports also grew (9.1%) for the same reason, but ports of the ports They already warn That this trend, driven by haste to buy before the entry into force of the rates, will disappear in May.

In the port of Los Angeles, the great entrance door of Chinese products to the USA, They waited this week That the import load was 35% lower than last year and it is already noted that May maritime traffic can fall by 20%. The reason: ship operators cancel their trips because there is no demand.

The National Federation of Retailers in fact provides that imports to the US At least 20% Interannual in the second half of the year, a percentage that for JP Morgan could rise to 75 or 80% if we talk specifically about the merchandise of China.

And what will that mean? That is the big question. That tariffs affect load traffic is not relevant only for shipping companies and port directors. After all, they are only intermediaries.

“A 60% decrease in containers means 60% less products arrival,” Remember Ryan PetersenExecutive Director of Flexport in the CNN chain. “It’s just a matter of time that the existing stock is exhausted, and then we will see shortage. And it will be when price increases are noticed.” In his opinion, if the trend continues and inventories are exhausted in summer, “empty shelves” in stores could be seen.

Supply chain earrings. Petersen is not the only one who shares that concern. At the end of April, just before Trump went down the tone with the Federal Reserve and soften its position with respect to China, Axios revealed That the executive directors of Walmart, Target and Home Depot, three chains with large glue in the US, launched a warning to Trump: over time prices will rise and can reach a scenario of empty shelves.

In fact the CNBC It already prevents that the fall of orders to China and the collapse of the reserves on load ships is approaching the supply chain to its critical point. It is not a minor issue. In 2024 US imported merchandise from China for a value of 438.9 billion of dollars and there are sectors in which their weight is fundamental: last year about 37% of clothing and footwear that reached the US market from other countries was “Made in China.”

Images | Barrett Ward (UNSPLASH)

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