From the 47th floor of his Singapore apartment building, Remy Osman, a British expat who works in the beverage industry, has a front-row seat to one of the world’s biggest geopolitical clashes. Armed with binoculars, a wide-angle camera and live tracking applications, Osman watches as a 333-meter-long supertanker moves at a snail’s pace along one of the busiest shipping routes on the planet.
The scene contains a brutal irony: as detailed Financial Timesthat ship’s cargo has almost doubled in value since it set sail just two weeks ago, coinciding with Brent crude oil reached 120 dollars per barrel in the wake of the war between the United States, Israel and Iran. From his balcony, Osman hunts the ships of the so-called “shadow fleet”, sanctioned oil tankers that operate outside the law, but in broad daylight.
The ship that caught Osman’s attention is the Hugean 18-year-old oil tanker. According to the sanctions list records of the US Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC)it is an Iranian-flagged ship operated by the National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC) and heavily monitored since 2018.
Although the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz began at the end of February with attacks by the United States and Israel, the Huge It has been one of the few large crude oil cargo ships (VLCC) that managed to get out of that mousetrap. From his privileged vantage point, Osman has identified an unmistakable pattern: the Iranian oil tankers sail towards the east sunken in the water, revealing that they are loaded to the brim, and a week later they return in the opposite direction floating much higher, with their load considerably lighter.
The most surprising thing is the nerve with which they operate in the midst of the current crisis. Ships that were previously hidden now display their names and flags as if to say: “We have as much right to navigate these waters as anyone else,” Osman himself said. to the Finance Times. This impunity has reached the point that almost two-thirds of the NITC fleet have started transmitting data accurate in their Automatic Identification Systems (AIS) after seven years of manipulation and concealment.
Tehran’s lifeline
The impact of this ghost fleet parading in front of Osman’s window is titanic. As the world suffers “the largest supply disruption in history” due to the closure of Hormuz, Iran continues to export its crude oilsurpassing the barrier of 2 million barrels per day.
The millions of barrels that Osman sees disappearing on the horizon have an overwhelmingly single destination: China. The Asian giant absorbs around 90% of Iran’s oil exports. The data tracked corroborate this massive escapeplacing the “Iran-China” route in first place in dark operations, moving more than 1.6 million barrels per day.
While Iran profits, the rest of the planet trembles. With some 20 million barrels a day taken off the formal board due to the physical blockade of Hormuz, the scenario of a barrel at $200 is already a real possibility. The global threat is proportional to the size of this illicit network: according to Fortunethe dark fleet is estimated at about 1,100 vessels, representing between 17% and 18% of all liquid cargo tankers in the world.
The machinery to outwit the Western powers is a marvel of evasive engineering that occurs a few kilometers from Osman’s house. As explained Financial Timestankers do not sail directly from Iran to Chinese ports, but instead perform ship-to-ship (Ship-to-Ship) transfers on the high seas. The main scenario for this transfer is the Eastern Outer Port Limits, in Malaysian waters, an area with little supervision. On a single day last January, satellite images confirmed the presence of about 60 of these ships anchored there, operating with total impunity.
To achieve this level of invisibility, they exploit legal loopholes in the sea. As detailed Fortune, The international maritime system is based on voluntary compliance: ships simply turn off their radio transponders, spoof their locations, or change their identities by scratching their registration numbers. In addition, they rely on “flags of convenience.” According to the statistics of Tanker TrackersIn addition to Iran and Russia, dark ships often fly flags of countries such as Panama, Cameroon or Sierra Leone.
The final link in this chain is found in Asia. The report of Kharon reveals that the final buyers They are not the large state oil companies, but the so-called refineries teapot. These small, independent refiners absorb 90% of Iranian exports and give Beijing “plausible deniability” in the international community, even though these private companies are deeply connected to the Chinese state through joint ventures and front-line networks in Hong Kong.
Attempts to stop this illicit transfer have been few and often frustrating. Although Malaysian authorities recently seized crude oil worth almost $130 million from two suspicious tankers, the outcome was laughable: after paying bail of just $75,000, the ships were released. The next day, Osman looked out on his balcony again and there was one of them, the Celebratebrowsing again fully loaded.
The paradox in the shadows
Still, the war has brought some complications. According to Lloyd’s Listthe escalation of war forced at least six ghost tankers that were sailing empty towards the Persian Gulf to turn around (the so-called U-turns) and abort its operations. But the network is resilient: as experts point out, the shadow fleet is designed precisely to operate under disruption.
The great irony is that, while those sanctioned find cracks to navigate, the legal actors are desperate. The blockade has forced Saudi Arabia to use its oil pipeline through the desert against the clock to divert millions of barrels to Yanbuin the Red Sea, where an emergency armada of supertankers is queuing up in an agonizing attempt to evacuate legal crude oil and prevent economic collapse.
How to conclude Fortune, The dark fleet did not arise because the maritime system is broken, but because it was always voluntary. Today, sanctions have pushed countries like Iran to build a highly effective parallel system.
While the formal world looks for alternative routes through the desert and prays to curb prices, the illicit economy flows constantly off the Asian coasts. From its 47th floor, with its gaze fixed on the horizon, Remy Osman is the perfect witness to an undeniable reality: when the rules of the sea become a minefield, there will always be those who find a way to navigate in the shadows, in broad daylight.
Image | Photo by Ian Simmonds on Unsplash
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