AMD has presented some growth forecasts that have surprised the market: 35% on average annually over the next three to five years, with the AI chip business in data centers growing at an average of 80% in the same period. The company estimates that the total AI chip market will reach $1 trillion by 2030.
While AMD has lagged the competition in terms of AI so far, its historic agreement with OpenAIthe specific hardware that is in development and the recent statements by Lisa Suseem to be turning their strategy around.
An unusual message. AMD has historically been a conservative company in its financial projections. Its CEO, Lisa Su, has been characterized during the years she has been at the helm by a generally prudent and realistic discourse. that now embrace these figures Such optimism represents a notable shift in their communication strategy and signals the extent to which the technology industry is assuming that demand for AI infrastructure will continue to skyrocket.
The context of the promises. amd affirms that the largest data center operators are accelerating their investment plans, when just a year ago they predicted a slowdown. According to Su, cited per Bloomberg, these companies see “real value in their businesses” with AI and the pace of infrastructure construction “is not going to stabilize.” The company also claims that its agreements with OpenAI and Oracle could generate tens of billions of dollars in annual sales by 2027.
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Why it can be dangerous. AMD is buying into the same hyper-optimistic narrative that have sold NVIDIA and OpenAI about the future of AI. The problem is that the entire technology chain is simultaneously betting on a scenario where the demand for AI chips grows exponentially without brakes. If expectations are not met, because AI models do not generate the expected returns or because OpenAI and other startups do not obtain sufficient funding, the correction could be brutal.
Bubble symptoms. Investors like Michael Burry They have already started betting against companies in the sector, even accusing the technology giants of inflating their figures by artificially extending the useful life of their chips to reduce depreciation. Softbank, for its part, sold a few days ago a $6 billion stake in NVIDIA, although assures which was not due to concerns about valuation. The indications that the market may be overheated they multiply.
Between the lines. AMD needed this coup. Although it has doubled its price this year, it is still second to NVIDIA in the AI accelerator market, the most lucrative segment of the sector. Intel, its traditional rival, doesn’t even have a viable product in this market. To achieve its objectives, AMD is committed to its MI400 chips and the Helios systemwhich will arrive in 2026. Several analysts consider these goals “somewhat aggressive” and “aspirational,” according to collects Reuters.
What’s coming now. The company promise reach a double-digit share in the data center AI chips market in the coming years. It remains to be seen if her ability to execute, proven during the Lisa Su era, is enough to transform these projections into reality or if, on the contrary, we are facing another symptom of an industry that has lost touch with caution.
Cover image | AMD and İsmail Enes Ayhan
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Xataka
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Antonio Vallejo
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