The European space agency begins to limit when the Soviet ship will fall. Where is it a lottery

Like some people, there are spacecraft that say goodbye giving the note. The Kosmos 482 Soviet Missionlaunched 53 years ago with the failed objective of reaching Venus, is about to star in one of the most unpredictable atmospheric resentments of recent times. The European Space Agency is following her live.

The last prediction. According to the ESA Space Waste Officethe capsule will fall to Earth tomorrow, on Saturday, May 10, 2025, at 08:16 UTC (10:12 in Spain). Although it has been reducing, the uncertainty window remains quite wide, with an error of +/- 8.61 hours.

This means that the exact moment and the location can still vary (for now only latitudes above and below the 50º are discarded), but the predictions are noted as the object approaches.

A capsule of the Cold War. Throwed on March 31, 1972, the Kosmos 482 ship was a twin sister of the successful Venera 8 mission, which did perch on Venus. However, a failure in the upper stage of the Molniya rocket that transported it prevented that it escaped the earth’s gravity, leaving it in an elliptical orbit with the earth all this time.

What makes this event special is not only the longevity of the capsule, but the fact that it was built to survive the infernal conditions of Venus: surface temperatures of 464 ° C, pressures of 100 atmospheres and accelerations of up to 300 g.

I could survive the reentry. What remains of the ship, the descent capsule of half a meter in diameter and 495 kg, was designed to support the extreme conditions of the Venusian atmosphere, so there is possibilities that it reaches intact to the surface of the earth.

To survive, the impact could occur at about 240 km/h, with a kinetic energy similar to that of a 40-55 cm meteor. The big question is whether the parachute system, after 53 years and with exhausted batteries, could work. In view of telescope, the object seems to be tumbos.

Prediction map on the reentry of the Soviet probe Kosmos 482. Image: that

Do not panic. Taking into account that most of the planet is water, the risk of causing personal damage is “extremely remote.” And the probability of reaching a person is even lower, from 1 between 100,000 million, according to ESA. To put it in perspective, it is about 65,000 times more likely to be reached by lightning

In addition, being an object that probably arrives as one piece, the risks are concentrated and therefore are lower than those created by the reentry of a rocket, which disperses multiple objects of metric size over a large area.

Let’s take advantage of science. The almost spherical and smooth form of the Kosmos 482 makes it an ideal object to measure atmospheric density into very low orbits. Every time its elliptical orbit passes through perigee (the point closest to Earth), loses height due to atmospheric drag.

This “accidental experiment”, which is being registered live by ESA, will provide valuable data on this type of event so far of the reentry. Perhaps a cold war ship shows us some lesson on how to reduce the problem of space garbage.

Images | THAT

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