If we were thinking that autumn was being kind to us, the State Meteorological Agency has bad news for this weekendsince this season with days of high temperatures is coming to an end. The culprit? A arctic air mass which will work as a switch for the peninsular climate, since in 48 hours we will go from autumn weather to a mid-winter scenario with usually low snow levels in the north of the peninsula.
This is something that reminds us a lot of the last ‘Beast from the East’ that we saw at the beginning of the year in the European center and that affected us with a significant drop in temperatures. But in this case the truth is that the polar cold is going to be very present in our peninsula.
The arctic corridor. The meteorological situation is defined by the entry of a very cold air mass coming from very high latitudes. This is something that will begin to be noticed from the afternoon this Wednesday, November 19, since the air mass will begin to be injected through the north of the peninsula, causing a widespread thermal collapse and that arrives just after the passage of the storm Claudia.
Different evolution. According to AEMET itself, In a special warning that has been issued, the first ‘affected’ will be those who live in the Cantabrian Sea who will see moderate rainfall this Wednesday and that will become snow from about “900 – 1200 m, exceeding thicknesses of 5 cm in points of the Cantabrian mountain range and the northern face of the Pyrenees.”
On Thursday this mass will continue to enter our country, and this will translate into snow levels that will drop to 600 meters generally in the northern third of the peninsula. Although the AEMET itself emphasizes above all the snow that expected in parts of the Basque CountryNavarra or the north of the northern plateau because they can be very copious.
The worst day. Between the last hours of Thursday and Friday morning is when the snow level will be between 300 and 400 meters in the eastern Cantabrian and upper Ebro, up to 5 cm of snow may accumulate, which will affect the main transport routes in the region.
Although in general, we are going to expect snow in Vitoria, Pamplona, Burgos, León, Soria and potentially in Segovia.
The figures of the cold. But in addition to these, up to almost 20 cm of snow in 24 hours in the Cantabrian Mountains, we must highlight the drop in temperatures that has already been experienced since this Wednesday in a large part of the country. What is expected is that maximum temperatures will be 10 degrees below zero in much of the peninsular territory, with the exception of the southwest and the coasts where they will be a little higher.
It will be on Saturday when a somewhat warmer air mass enters the territory that will cause temperatures to begin to rise and the snow level will also be limited to the highest mountains.
Is this snowfall normal? In the month of November it does not seem normal that we have a heavy snowfall at the doors of the country as if it were December or January, as happened with the Filomena storm in 2021. But if we look further back, we can remember one of the historic snowfalls in November that took place in Madrid between November 27 and 30, 1904considered the heaviest snowfall in more than 150 years, with snow accumulations of between 70 and 150 cm that completely paralyzed the city.
A problem on the roads. The problem that this storm just arrives on the weekend is a great inconvenience for roads of our country that are subjected to a greater amount of traffic. The models are quite clear in showing that many of the main roads in the north of the peninsula will be exposed to these adverse weather conditions and that is why extreme precautions must be taken on the days of greatest risk in the country.
And in the past we have seen how some cars were trapped in the middle of a highway, such as the AP-6, due to these intense snowfalls. And in the end we don’t know where the most aggressive moment of this storm could surprise us.
Are we prepared? In Spain, the truth is that experience tells us that we do not give too much importance to these alerts, as we have seen with the different storms or even the DANA. Faced with this new situation, we must keep in mind that we are faced with a heavy snowfall that affects more than half of the country at really low levels.
And although there is logistical preparation in the most affected territories to guarantee mobility and security, past experience, such as historic snowfall from Storm Filomena in 2021shows that the country faces great challenges in managing heavy snowfall, with significant difficulties for transportation and basic services in some cases.
Some communities, such as Castilla y León, already prepares with 900 snow plows and salting plants and some 4,400 agents for everything that may be to come.
Images | AEMET Marco De Gregorio
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