The Ministry of Consumer Affairs has ordered the blocking of the Polymarket and Kalshi websitesthe two main prediction platforms, and has opened a disciplinary file for operating without the necessary administrative license. The sophistication of the gambling carried out by these platformswho dress the game with an aura of finance or tradinghas not convinced the authorities.
The disguise, revealed The Ministry of Social Rights, Consumption and Agenda 2030, directed by Pablo Bustinduy, has responded the question that many have been asking for a long time: They equate Kalshi and Polymarket with a betting house and therefore need the corresponding gaming license, a license which of course they do not have. The General Directorate of Gambling Regulation points out that in Spain, as in other European countries, prediction markets are classified as games of chance since they bet on uncertain future events.
The license. In Spain, all gambling operators must be subject to a license that offers a series of guarantees, such as identity verification systems and controlling access to the best of age. In addition, they must control and prohibit access to people who are prohibited from playing. Polymarket and Kalshi do not have this license, which is why Consumo initiated the sanctioning file and has ordered the blocking of their web pages.
And now what. At the time of writing these lines, the two websites are still operational, but since The Country They say that the ministry has already notified the telecommunications operators, who have between seven and ten days to execute the blockade. When this occurs, a warning message will appear saying that this is an unlicensed gambling operator. The sanctioning process will last between three and four months until its final resolution.
Regulatory clash in Europe. Although with different regulations, the case of Spain adds to a list of European countries that have blocked access to Polymarket, such as France, Germany, Belgium, Poland, the Netherlands or Switzerland. Although there are still countries that allow them to operate, Kalshi and Polymarket face increasingly strong opposition in Europe, with many countries not buying the narrative that they are actually an investment marketplace.
Meanwhile in the US. In the United States, however, the platforms are increasingly integrated into public conversation. At the regulatory level, since 2020 CFTC considers Kalshi a licensed prediction market. In the case of Polymarket, the platform It was sanctioned in 2022 for offering contracts without the appropriate regulatory structure, but continues to operate. On the other hand, this same month the congress opened a investigation into possible insider trading (let’s remember the case of the capture of Nicolás Maduro). The debate there is not so much whether they are considered gambling or investment, but rather the origin of the information that is handled.
Young men. In a Morning Consult report They say that the usual users of this type of apps are under 45 years old and more than 70% are men. In the United States, 25% of men between 18 and 24 years old admit to having gambled at least once in the last six months. Why young men? According to BBCthese types of platforms are at the intersection of several very masculine cultures, such as sports betting and profit speculation. cryptobros either financebros. It is also successful among this audience thanks to the support of public figures such as Logan Paul, who was sponsored by Polymarket.
Where almost everyone loses. We recently talked about a massive analysis that confirmed our suspicions: in Polymarket almost everyone loses while 0.1% of users take almost all the benefits. Those who take the lion’s share of the pie are professional traders who have access to very expensive data sets. In addition, many times the betting conditions have a lot of fine print, even the easiest ones to get right are not that simple.
In it Wall Street Journal They tell the story of a man who bet Kalshi that rapper A$AP Rocky would say the word “rapper” on Jimmy Fallon’s Tonight Show. If he was right he would win $168,000. Although he said the word, in the televised version that part was deleted and according to the rules, which were quite hidden, only what was broadcast on television counted. He lost everything.
Image | Kalshi, Polymarket
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