diurnal solar surpluses, night spikes … and increasingly cheaper batteries

For years, conversation about the future of Spanish electricity has been reduced to fear of two words: “China photovoltaic”. Panels cheap and reasonably efficient.

But the final weapon is not arriving in containers from Shanghai, but increasingly frequently in the van of a neighborhood installer: lithium batteries packs that allow reducing the dependence of the conventional electricity grid. Cut the cable. Or, at least, loosen it.

The cheaper that changes the rules

Past, present and future of the storage price:

• 2015: Storing a kilowatt-Hora cost more than 1,100 dollars/kWh.
• 2024: according to Bloombergnefthe average price of the pack was at 115 dollars/kWh (about 105 euros/kWh), after a 20% drop in the last year.
• 2026-2027: By then, the same consultant estimates that the psychological bar of the 100 dollars/kWh will be broken.

With these prices, Storing domestic energy costs less than the term valley of the PVPC ratewhich now ranges between 0.11 and approximately 0.13 euros/kWh.

That makes the battery the natural complement of any roof with panels and a direct enemy of the demand managed by the distributors.

To understand the impact of this cheaper on the accounts of the companies in the sector, you have to understand how they earn money.

Iberdrola. Its 2024 ebitda, According to its annual resultsit was almost 17,000 million euros, broken down like this:

• Networks: 6,423 million euros. 38% of the total.
• Generation and customers: 10,425 million euros. 62%.
• 52% of Iberdrola’s investment goes to networks, its most stable and regulated segment.

Endesa. Its 2024 Ebitda reached 5,300 million euros, with a similar distribution:

• Electric distribution: 1,750 million (approximately 33%).
• The rest comes mainly from generation and marketing.

Naturgy. With an Ebitda of 5,400 million in 2024:

• ELECTRIC NETWORKS AND GAS: They represent approximately 45% of the business.
• The company has increased its investment in this segment by 15% compared to the previous year.

For all these companies, Each kilowatt-hora that does not circulate through its networks directly impacts its profitability. Today, the threat is hypothetical, but tomorrow it will be arithmetic.

Battery and panel: the combo that takes off

According to data from Auto:

• In 2021, only 2% of residential facilities included battery.
• In 2024 that figure reached 71%.

And they are not just coastal chalets, hybrid kits reach peripheral single -family and even communities of pioneering neighbors.

With subsidies and 2.0TD rateamortization drops between 6 and 8 years, and energy self -sufficiency touches 80% in optimal conditions.

Electric grid as electron pipe begins to stagger. And not only because of the fall in the demand managed, but because the flow is reversed. In the moments of sun and low demand, thousands of homes are beginning to return energy to the network or simply not need it.

For a company that invests billions in transport and distribution infrastructures, that is a problem.

But the regulatory framework is starting to move. And your address is not clear.

The CNMC has on the table The new toll methodology for the period 2026–2031. Among the Options in consultation: Move part of the fixed costs of the network at the end of power, and begin to remunerate flexibility services, such as storage or coordinated discharge of domestic batteries.

They are two changes with opposite consequences:

1. The first penalizes the self -consumer with drums, although he barely consumes.
2. The second rewards it, if your battery helps to balance the network at critical moments.

Everything will depend on how normative design is related. And who is heard more. But for now, the government Last the arrival of aid for energy storage through 700 million Feder funds.

This transformation is not an isolated case. Several European and American electricity have understood the message before the Spanish. And they have begun to move.

• Nextera has already hired 81 GW from Solar With storage for 2027, with a good part behind the accountant. That is, in homes.
• Enel x He has launched virtual power plants pilots (VPPS) In Italy and agreements to display regulated batteries.
• EDF He is exploring flexibility markets in the United Kingdom and France.

In Spain, Endesa has timidly begun to explore this land with its project FlexiCy In Malaga.

The background logic is clear: The network will remain necessary, but less as a unidirectional route and more as a smart platform for exchange and balance.

And the interesting thing It is not so much the exact point in which we are, but the slope of the curve. According to The International Energy Agencyto meet the objectives set in COP28, world storage capacity It must be multiplied by six before 2030. Of which 1,200 GW must come from batteries.

Spain, with its diurnal solar surpluses and nocturnal peaks of consumption, is one of the most fertile land in Europe for that transition.

Despite the fear of these years to the threat that came by boat – Chinese plates – the real threat is the one that arrives in a van. In lithium, phosphate and iron packages that allow each home to keep their own energy.

In that context, The network business is focused on a transformation: to bill kilowatts to offer guarantees of energy continuity. And there is the key: whoever adapts to the new model will not only resist better. You can also lead it.

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