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In the world, Ironiza A few months ago the European geopolitics expert Ulrike Franke, there are few certainties. One is death. Another taxes. And the third, almost at the same level as the previous two, is the military neutrality of Switzerland. Your own government presume that it is “one of the foundations” of its foreign policy, a status recognized internationally since 1815 and that in practice prevents it from taking advantage of armed conflicts or joining military alliances, no matter how much powerful (and above all lucrative) Let it be your arms industry.
In an increasingly complicated world, marked by the three years of war in Ukraine, the approach of the US and Russia and relationships more and more tense Between Brussels and Washington, this status of neutrality seems to soften.
What happened? That although Swiss neutrality is part of the country’s DNA, it is recognized worldwide and has overwhelming support in Helvetic society (91% in 2024), Something is changing in the Alpina nation.
It comes with a quick turn by Google to find items that They wonder For the future that Switzerland has if he maintains his equidistance, they talk about “Relanding” either “questioning” of neutrality or even report how Bern It has been involved in projects of Military Cariz. It is not so much The president of the country was pronounced on the issue, Viola Amherd.
“It should be reviewed”. The clearest evidence was left by the Swiss federal council in August, when he published A series of “recommendations” in terms of security prepared by an expert commission. Among them there is a centered on the neutral role of Switzerland that generated a special interest. The reason? Your firmness. “The neutrality policy should be reviewed, focus more on its security function and apply with more flexibility,” starts The chapter. They are just that, recommendations embodied in a report, but it is revealing.
“The majority of the commission recommends to better align neutrality policy with the United Nations Charter and take into account the distinction between aggressor and victim,” The document aboundswhich also advocates to review the federal law of 96 in the matter of defense and the approach to the Atlantic Alliance and the 27 community states. “Cooperation with NATO and EU must continue to deepen with a view to achieving a common defense capacity and be a real cooperation.”
The importance of context. The recommendations are understood much better in context light, one that has evolved clearly since it was disclosed The reportin August 2024. The first key is the Ukraine War.
After his beginning Bern He decided to join To European sanctions to Russia Bajo The argument that supporting purely economic punishments does not imply positioning itself in an armed conflict. That reasoning did not prevent, however, a few months later, in August 2022, Moscow stop considering To Switzerland a neutral country and even rejected a Berna offer to mediate in the war.
Geopolitics … and market. There are other keys, such as the fact that Switzerland was incorporated into the United Nations In 2002 (with everything that implies), but among them there is an especially interesting. Switzerland may be a neutral country, but has companies that export hundreds of millions of euros in war material.
And while in 2022 that business reached A record levelthe following year the flow He collapsed partly by the neutral status of the country, which Block re -export of weapons and ammunition manufactured in Switzerland to countries at war, such as Ukraine.
“Raise the ban”. In Your report August is also dedicated to the arms policy in which it is advocated to “strengthen and adapt better to threats” the Swiss industry. “The majority wishes to lift the prohibition of re -export to the countries mentioned in Annex 2 of the ordinance of February 25, 1998 on war material,” the document collects.
In said annex A twenty and a half of countries are cited from different regions, including Germany or Spain, which in 2023 assured that Bern “blocked” the re -export of military material to Ukraine to reinforce his defense.
And Trump arrived. That was the context a few months ago. Since November one more factor is added: Donald Trump, than from his Arrival at the White House He has revolutionized international politics, especially in Europe. In the two scarce months that the Republican has been in office, he has threatened take out to the US from NATO, he has complained that the alliance “Take advantage” from Washington and has implied that Europe will not be able to count forever or unconditionally with the “Defensive umbrella” United States.
Has that climate influenced in Bern? Financial Times (FT) published a few days ago An extensive analysis in which he argued that the new scenario is pushing Switzerland to establish closer defense ties. At stake also enters a new name, Martin Pfistera colonel who in a matter of days will become the new Swiss defense minister and has already been favorable to greater cooperation in defense with NATO and the EU.
“Absolutely necessary”. As collect the newspaper British, Pfister has publicly assured that he sees “absolutely necessary” cooperation and joint training with NATO. And that even though Switzerland, precisely because of its historic neutral status, is not part of the Atlantic Alliance.
Beyond his words, the Alpine country has made several interesting movements over the last months without altering its neutral status: He has decided to join to an EU project to facilitate military mobility, He has signed a statement to be part of the European sky shield initiative (ESSI) and the government even It has been proposed Relax the restrictions for the export of weapons.
“I have never seen a scenario that reflects the situation we are in,” Jean-Marc Rickli commentsfrom the Geneva Security Policy Center to FT. “In transatlantic relations there have been ups and downs, but the possible detachment of the US with Europe, in addition to aligning with Russia … has generated a shock in Europe, including Switzerland.” With that backdrop, one of the first tasks that Pfister will assume will be to write the first Swiss national security strategy.
And what do Swiss think? Although the context suggests the question of whether Switzerland must bet on involvement or isolationism and there are already official reports that advocate for “review”, the truth is that neutrality enjoys enormous support in the country. At least this is reflected in the surveys on the subject, although they also show that the new scenario is draft in the Helvetic society.
A 2024 report It reveals that 91% of citizens want the country to preserve their status, although the percentage is slightly lower to the average value since 2014 (95%). Another study prepared by the Military Academy of the ETH of Zurich and the CSS shows that 53% of respondents They are in favor of strengthening ties with NATO, above the average 43% of the last decade.
30% of respondents would even be in favor of joining the Alliance, a low proportion but exceeding in any case the average of the last ten years, which stood at 23%. The percentages start from a study published last summer, before Trump was imposed at the polls to Kamala Harris.
A complicated path. If Switzerland decided to rethink his international role, it wouldn’t have it easy either. Beyond social support for neutrality, in the country there are parties (both left and extreme right pacifists) that would raise endurance At the political level. Besides, Remember Frankethe participatory democracy system makes decision -making. Changes on the role would require a referendum and legal adjustments that They may require years.
For now, Switzerland has already made some decisions, such as reinforce your bet For the defense until 1% of GDP is allocated, above 0.7% of last year but still far from the objectives set by NATO, which has asked its members to reach at least 2%. Moreover, its general secretary He has already warned that “sooner rather than later” that bar will rise above 3% of GDP.
Images | New Jersey National Guard (Flickr) and Swiss Federal Authorities
In Xataka | Ukraine and Trump’s uncertainty are pushing Europe to recover something until recently anathema: the mili
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