look beyond 2% of GDP

In record time the European Union has seen how defense spending went from being a secondary issue in the political debate, almost an annoying issue, to a whole hot potato. And it is logical. In just three years Brussels has had to deal with two great challenges. First, in February 2022the advance of Russian troops to Ukraine and the beginning of a war at home doors. Second, The return to the White House of a Trump that He has already warned to the EU that will not always have the US military support.

Faced with such a scenario, the question is obvious: is Europe that owns its own defense? What should do to be?

“The old days”. A few days ago, during the Munich Security Conference, Volodymyr Zelensky He launched a notice About the turn that has printed Trump’s return To the White House in the relations between Washington and Brussels: “The old days in which the US supported Europe just because it always did (…). From now on, things will be different and Europe has to adapt.”

The words of the Ukrainian leader sounded particularly serious because they do not refer to economic policy or international diplomacy (or not only). In Munich, Zelensky spoke of something that directly affects his country: defense. Hence the warning was accompanied by a glove Speed ​​to the Brussels table: “I think the time has come, the European Armed Forces must be created.”

“Guarantee your own defense”. Words matter, but it matters above all the context. In the scarce month he has been in the White House Trump has already made clear some of the master lines of his second term. And one of them happens, indeed, due to a substantial change in relations with Europe. In Economic matter… and defense. The Republican has demanded that NATO countries raise your expense 5% of their GDP, a clear message to the EU countries, which add 23 of the 32 members of the alliance.

Throughout the last weeks Washington has insisted on the need for a “rebalancing” In transatlantic relationships and He has made clear that the US military presence in Europe “will not last forever.” Vice President JD Vance has even gone further and took advantage of the Munich forum to launch A NOTICE TO NAVIANS: The old continent must “take a great step to guarantee its own defense.” In summary, the EU risks running out of the support of an US that today seems more interested in the Indo-Pacific.

A table without a chair for the EU. If there has been a clear test (and above all graphics) of the change of scenario in defense, it was left without a chair in The negotiating table Mounted a few days ago in Riad to talk about the Ukraine War and its possible resolution. There were representatives of Russia, the US and even Saudi Arabia, host; But no Europe for anger from its leaders. Nor kyiv, protagonist of the negotiation.

It was not a surprise. Although later He modulated his toneWashington’s representative for the Ukraine War, Keith Kellogg, already He had made clear Days before the EU would have no place on the table. With that backdrop and in full approach between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, the vice president of the National Security Council of Russia, Medvedev, He sent a message Of course to Brussels: “Single and cold Europe is crazy with jealousy and anger (…). It is not surprising. Its time is over. It is weak, ugly and useless.”

The time of the European Army? The question that remains is the one that slid a few days ago Zelensky: Has the time to boost the European Armed Forces? The idea is not much less new. The French president, Enmanuel Macron, has pointed out In the past in that direction, which is not recent or oblivious to the origins of the EU. In 1954 the mint He already raised Create the European Defense Community and Parliament itself presume that since 2016, after Crimea’s invasioncommunity levels have been taken to “reinforce Europe’s ability to defend themselves.”

A complex movement. Europe has promoted forums, the European Defense Fundthe Strategic compass wave Industrial Defense Strategy And he has reinforced his defense expenditure, as highlighted by the European Commission itself, increasing its parties of the Member States more than 30% In a matter of a few years, coinciding with the invasion of Ukraine.

However, despite these movements or even the social support of the common defense policy (supports it 77% of Europeansaccording to the Eurobarometer of 2024), the analysts They usually coincide In how complicated an EU army would be promoted, at least in the short term, or even shielding security policy and Common Defense.

The EU is a club of states with interests that do not always coincide, just as the perception of threats does not do. That without counting on complex which are decision making at the community level or that, such as Remember From Investigate Europe, creating an army under the command of the EU would imply that national governments would have to give up sovereignty. Although the opposite was devised, the summit held these days in Paris He has evidenced those difficulties and there are those who, as the Polish Foreign Minister, already Close the door to a unified army.

Policy issue, and expense. The other great question about European defense, especially after Washington’s movements and Trump’s demand that NATO countries increase their expense is … How much do EU countries invest in defense? Is it enough? And if not, how much more would they have to spend? For now von der Leyen He has already raised Freeze the fiscal rules so that the EU is seen with hands free to invest “hundreds of billions” of euros precisely for that purpose: defense.

“For extraordinary times it is possible to have extraordinary measures in the stability and growth pact”, He assumed days ago The European leader. The idea about the table involves giving “flexibility” to member states so that they have more margin in their budgets when deciding military spending and at least the countries integrated in NATO reach the aim of the equivalent expenditure of 2% of GDP.

Now, together, community countries They are 1.9%although that figure hides very different national realities: while Poland and the Baltic Republics have expenses that go from 3% of their GDP, Spain moves at 1.32% with the goal of reaching 2% committed in the late decade. They are low data, especially if one takes into account that it is not crazy that throughout this year the Atlantic Alliance already proposes to go beyond that 2% to the judge it “insufficient”.

Percentages and perspective. These percentages give an idea of ​​the deep differences in investment effort within the community club. NATO data, which brings together 23 EU countries, are significant. Your balance It shows that although a good part of the EU exceeds the goal of 2%, Belgium, Croatia, Italy, Luxembourg, Portugal, Slovenia and Spain remain significantly below that goal.

Is it a lot or little? USA dedicates to defense almost 3.4% of his GDP and now claims to NATO members who reach 5%. As for Russia, the data from the World Bank Group shows that the weight of military spending on its GDP has shot from 2021 to reach 5.9% In 2023, far from 1.7% that the same agency attributed that year to the EU.

He analysis of World Bank Group on Europe also shows that the EU did not begin to increase the percentage of defense expenditure until 2015, after the Russian invasion of Crimea, and returned to rebound in 2022, coinciding with the Ukrainium conflict. Until then, with some ups and downs, he was going down, moving away from the cold war data.

Is it 2%? That is the million dollar question: what investment effort Europe should make in defense if you want to be autonomous? Does it reach 2% of GDP marked by NATO? Should Trump look at 5%? Those questions were asked recently Florian Dorndirector of Econpolin A broad essay Posted in INTRECONOMICSand its conclusion is clear: during the Cold War the Europeans already spent in defense “much more than 2%” of GDP every year, and that despite the fact that at that time they had the support of the United States.

“It will not be enough to increase defense spending to achieve a better military preparation, as the objective of 2% of NATO intends. Many European countries have cut their defense budgets for many years and have barely invested in deposit deposits and modern equipment .

With an eye on Russia. And if that message is not clear, Dorn warned: “Military costs are much higher for Europeans than for Russia. That is why Russia alone (without their allies) has costs for a large army lower than those of all NATO European countries together.” In September Putin He instructed so that the Russian army becomes the second major in the world, only surpassed by China’s.

EU figures. The European Commission presume In any case, between 2021 and 2024, EU Member States have increased total defense expenditure by more than 30%, reaching 326,000 million euros in 2024, “approximately 1.9% of EU GDP “, Calculate. The agency also expects that amount to increase in more than 100,000 million euros in real terms until 2027. At least 2023 more than 80% of investments in defense, about 61,000 million, dedicated themselves to “new products.”

If we talk about armies, the statista data They show that Italy, France and Spain are the three states of the community club with the greatest armies, attending to the number of active military personnel. In 2019 Spain added about 199,000, with Italy at the head with 342,000 troops.

However, the figures of the EU member states are today quite lower to those he handled during the Cold War: 3.4 million in 1989 has passed to less than two in 2019, according to statista. In that context in recent years the mandatory services.

Images | Us Army Europe (Flickr), 7th Army Training Command (Flickr), NATO and European Commission

In Xataka | Ukraine and Trump’s uncertainty are pushing Europe to recover something until recently anathema: the mili