The networks are filling up with maps that promise the end of the heat. One thing is what we would like and another, very different, is what we know

There is always a time in the summer when people start to get tired of the heat. And one notices it because social networks begin to fill with weather maps saying “be careful, here comes the cool weather.” The difference this year is not only that this glut begins in July (we already have two possible thermal reliefs in the running!), but that many of the maps have AI behind them.

First, the good news. We are, as it seemsin the middle of the second heat wave of 2026. The combo (a ridge over the peninsula, a DANA to the west and very dry air) is a classic. The result is also: up to 42 degrees in the Guadalquivir valley and peaks close to 44 in the south of Valencia. Tropical nights are for everyone.

AEMET dates the end “probably on Wednesday the 8th, without ruling out Thursday the 9th”, with the declines becoming generalized from the southwest. And it warns of something important: there is a “high degree of uncertainty.”

Uncertainty, yes; but after five days, less and less.

And what about the end of the month? In addition to the nearest ‘relief’, there are other maps floating around. One of them is a pass of the European Center AIFSv2 which suggests that for the second fortnight all of Europe will experience a few days of general cold weather.

Obviously, a single exit so far into the future does not say much. However, it is interesting because this model (based on AI) is only a couple of months old and is trying to ‘democratize’ long-term modeling. That doesn’t mean I’ve gotten it yet.

The best example happened a couple of days ago. he ECMWF’s own weekly newsletter, July 3gave a warm anomaly in the following three weeks, with a possible third wave in Europe. Two days later, another pass from the same center announced the opposite. And it makes sense, because these are not failures: meteorology is something extremely complex and not all of our calculation capacity is capable of containing it within 15 days.

Why should we care about all this? Because summer is looking bad. AEMET and ECMWF give a globally warm july and a summer with the warm tertile almost discounted. It is true that beating 2025 as the hottest summer in the series is unlikely, 20-25%; but it is not necessary to turn our days into a slow agony waiting for autumn.

Forecasts taken out of context are going to be the order of the day.

So… what can we expect? A respite at the end of the week and little else: although it seems that the omens of persistence of the ridges on the continent are fading, the heat is not going anywhere in the medium term.

Image | meteologix

In Xataka | While AEMET fears the second great heat wave of the year, meteorologists warn that “we have to prepare for harsher summers”