In the midst of a heat wave, Europe has started buying air conditioners in droves. And China can’t cope

I don’t know anyone who likes air conditioning, especially for sleeping. However, when the heat hits, it is impossible to spend the days indoors. if we don’t have the device on. The problem is that I am speaking from the position of a Spaniard who lives in La Mancha, where air conditioners practically come with houses. Further north or in the rest of Europe, directly, the air conditioning with 20% penetration in houses, it is a mythological animal. It was, rather.

With the current heat wavecountries like France, Germany, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom have started buying air conditioning units like crazy only to find themselves with a problem: China is the main supplier and the manufacturers cannot cope. And I’m not going to say that air conditioners now are geopolitics, but a little… yes. Let’s see it.

It’s hot and there is no solution. Two weeks ago I was at Vivatech, in Paris, and this past weekend in London and Liverpool. At 29º, the Apple Watch showed me that in Paris They were on orange alert by heat. 29º in my land is a slightly hot spring day (unfortunately). In the United Kingdom, however, things changed and it wasn’t just incredibly hot: when you entered an establishment it was even worse. Not only do they not have air conditioners because they have not needed them, but have built so that the houses retain heat.

A taxi driver told me that the best time of day is when he is working because his house is a sauna, and it makes perfect sense. Spain and France are two of the most affected countriesbut northern Italy, Belgium, Poland, the Czech Republic, the Netherlands, Germany and the aforementioned United Kingdom are also suffering the consequences. And the problem is no longer that it is hot, but that mortality due to heat has skyrocketed in recent weeks. The solution? The north of Spain and European countries have started buying air conditioning units like crazy, but there is a problem.

Exhausted. The middle SCMP He has a representative in Paris and tells how, a few days ago, he approached several businesses to try to get an air conditioner. The answer that he found in several of them, and that some friends reported to him, is that everything was sold. The scene is like something out of an apocalyptic movie, with stores with shelves full of everything except the air conditioning section, which is empty.

He started looking at online stores, such as a German website designed so that people can find specific models of these devices and, after searching 1,176 stores, the model he wanted was only in one of them. In these countries where air conditioning is not normal, people go out to cool off in fountains and rivers, and even French President Emmanuel Macron has addressed the population pointing out that it is impossible for them to adapt “to a peak that has no equivalent anywhere in Europe today and that has never had an equivalent in our history.”

Perhaps he has become a little heated with that statement, but it reflects that the situation is becoming unsustainable. And you would think that the solution is to start importing more, right? The problem is that it is not that simple.

Bottleneck in production. China, as with other everyday devices, is the main manufacturer of air conditioners. Brands such as Haier, Gree, Hisense or Midea are some of those that lead the market, even creating models adapted to European regulations in certain countries (such as the Midea PortaSplit for windows, which makes little noise and has a very low refrigerant charge, ideal for Germany).

There are others like Xiaomi (whose model we analyzed last year and a year later I confirm that it is still going great), Dreo with its fans or Dreame that are starting to bring their models to Europe because they have seen that they definitely have a pull. Only in May, esteem that China exported air conditioners worth $3.33 million to France, $2.82 million to Germany and a whopping $7.69 million to the Netherlands.

It implies an increase of 186.2%, 69.6% and 139.1% respectively compared to the previous year. This percentage in France is explained if we take into account that, according to French data, only between 18% and 26% of homes had air conditioning until then.

Also in logistics. Another problem is that these brands mentioned do not manufacture only for themselves, but for other manufacturers that sell OEM equipment, which implies that the factories are full. It is estimated that China accounts for 40% of global air conditioning exports and, to meet that demand, some manufacturers have begun to work day and night to satisfy European demand.

They are prioritizing more portable models and split for Europe because they have seen a huge market, but they cannot multiply production indefinitely without incurring overcapacity the rest of the year. Giants like Cainiao, AliExpress or Joybuy they are meeting with a brutal bottleneck because, although they have had units in advance trying to tackle this summer’s situation, they have simply… flown out of European warehouses.

And in the installation. Faced with this situation, and seeing that heat waves are increasingly common, Europe estimated in 2024 that expected 70 million AC devices to be installed by 2030. This would mean covering 35% of European homes, but if all these factors were not already a salad of problems full of ingredients, two more are added.

The first, the regulation of each city. In Spain we are used to seeing the typical indoor split unit with a compressor hanging from the façade, but there are important heritage restrictions in historic centers that allow drilling into walls or altering the aesthetics of buildings. In neighborhood communities you must ask for permission, there are fines for installation on facades without authorization (in Italy, for example) and the price of electricity doesn’t help either.

Furthermore, in countries where penetration is so low, the bottleneck of shipments is added to that of installers. It makes sense: if they haven’t been needed historically, there simply aren’t any, and when everyone is installing air conditioners, the installers can’t cope. There is no industry of installers and maintainers prepared to absorb millions of new units in two summers and that is why models like the aforementioned PortaSplit that do not require professional installation are so popular (and are sold out).

Barriers. The second is that all this is taking place in the middle of the European discussion on the trade deficit between the European Union and China. Europe is taking measures to boost domestic consumption, making exports difficult, but it has come up against reality: while politicians seek to rebalance the trade relationship, the heat is heating up and it is Chinese manufacturers who can provide a solution.

Is air conditioning geopolitics? Well, it has not reached the extreme of rare earths, but it is evident that a potential bad relationship between the EU and China would suffer more in the field of air conditioning than if we could not buy a latest model mobile phone. In France, of course, It has already become a political weapon.

And that’s not to mention the climate paradox of an air conditioner that consumes an insane amount of electricity and that it needs to generate that electricity somehow. And not in all countries it is through renewables.

Image | Singapore Stock Photos

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