Japan designed the battle of midway convinced that the distance and dispersion of his fleet gave him an advantage. The problem is that the United States had deciphered the plan and converted that distance in a trap in 1942: four Japanese aircraft carriers ended up at the bottom of the Pacific in just a few hours. In naval warfare, staying away has never been a guarantee of safety.
Retreat is no longer a refuge. For years, the United States’ response to China’s military buildup in the Pacific was clear: move away its aircraft carriers and large naval assets from the Asian coast. The reasoning seemed sound.
The further away they were from Chinese ballistic, hypersonic, and cruise missiles, the harder it would be to destroy them. Bases like Guam They thus became a kind of strategic sanctuary… until Beijing just made something uncomfortable clear: distance no longer guarantees security.
The Chinese manual. A group of Chinese military scientists, led by Gao Tianyun from the National University of Defense Technology in Nanjing, has published a study which describes how to destroy an aircraft carrier battle group at 3,000 kilometers.
The figure is by no means coincidental. It is practically the exact distance between Shanghai and Guam. What is striking is not only the ambition of the plan, but the implicit message: the refuge that Washington chose to protect its most valuable ships is already within the threat map that China says it is studying.
The great chain of death. The study does not present a “miracle weapon,” but rather something more dangerous: a complete system. First locate, then follow, and then saturate. The proposal combines satellites, drones, radar aircraft, submarines, ships and signals intelligence to build a chain of constant monitoring of an enemy naval group.
Once the objective was set, the real key would arrive: a massive attack with coordinated missilessharing data in flight, differentiating decoys from real targets and assigning targets from multiple angles of attack.
The war of exhausting defenses. The Chinese logic is not so much to pierce the armor of an aircraft carrier as to break the defensive architecture that protects it. An American battle group depends on Aegis destroyersinterceptor missiles, electronic warfare, decoys and CIWS systems last line.
The problem is that all these systems have limits. The goal of a coordinated swarm is not to be unstoppable, but to make the defense run out of timewithout radar capacity or without sufficient interceptors. In other words, it is a war of exhaustion in seconds.
Hiding is no longer enough. Here is possibly the central idea that worries Washington. The United States dispersed its ships and moved its aircraft carriers away to avoid having “all their eggs in one basket,” making it difficult for China to locate and attack them.
But he chinese study issues a very specific warning: hiding and dispersing does not necessarily mean being safe. If the detection and tracking chain works, distance ceases to be a barrier and simply becomes a logistical variable.
The most difficult point. Of course, work does not mean that China can do it tomorrow. The analysis itself makes it clear that the problem is not the range of the missiles, but maintain targeting data precise information about a naval group that moves, maneuvers, camouflages itself, emits interference and deploys decoys.
Why hit a moving target? 3,000 kilometers It remains one of the most complex tasks of modern warfare, and although the theory now exists, the practice is a very different matter.
More message than capacity. Because perhaps that is precisely the point. Post this study It doesn’t seem like a technical demonstration so much as a strategic statement. If you like, Beijing is also saying something very concrete to Washington: move your aircraft carriers Any further does not solve the problem, it only changes its form.
In other words, the new Pacific war is no longer about getting close enough to strike, but about proving that even thousands of miles away no one is really out of reach.
Image | US Navy
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