Türkiye seemed immune to the drop in birth rates. Now his Government is desperate because it does not know how to stop it

In Türkiye 2025 was the “Year of the Family” and the decade ahead of us (2026-2035) will be that of “Family and Population”. It’s not a coincidence. Just like many other countries from Europe, Asia or America, the Turkish Government increasingly looks with greater concern its declining birth rates. Specifically there is two data that worry Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s team: the number of births has been falling since 2014, which has dragged the fertility rate to its lowest level so far this century, far from what is necessary to keep the population stable.

The problem is that neither the “Year of the Family” nor the rest of the measures deployed by Erdoğan seem to be running too much.

What has happened? That Türkiye has not managed to avoid the demographic winter that hits other countries in the world, such as Japan, South Korea either much of Europe. It is not just that the birth rate is falling or that the country’s demographic engine is showing clear signs of having caught the flu. The most revealing are the ‘pro-birth’ initiatives and above all the statements of Erdoğan encouraging his fellow citizens to have more offspring, which shows that the issue is generating more and more suspicion in Turkish institutions.

In March, the Turkish Minister of Family and Social Services, Mahinur Ozdemir Goktas, expressed it clearly (and dramatically) during an interview: for the Executive, demography has become “a question of survival.” “Our strongest strength is the family,” the leader stressed after recalling that in a matter of 27 years Turkey has experienced the same decline in birth rates that has taken nine decades in other nations.

What does the data say? The last ones, published This same week by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) they draw a very unflattering scenario. In 2025, 895,374 babies were born in Türkiye, a bad figure no matter how you look at it. To begin with, because it represents a drop of 4.78% compared to 2024 and the lowest figure in the entire historical series disclosed by TUIK, which dates back to 2001. As if that were not enough, it aggravates the decline in what is known as the ‘total fertility rate’, which has been moving away from the levels necessary for years to keep the population stable.

Why are they important? Of all the TUIK indicators, the ‘total fertility rate’ is probably the one that worries Ankara the most. And it is logical. It basically shows the number of children that, on average, a woman is expected to have throughout her reproductive life (between 15 and 49 years old). In 2001 this indicator stood at 2.38 births. It was good data because it far exceeded the necessary rate (2.1) to keep the population stable without having to take into account other factors, such as immigration.

The problem is that since 2014 that indicator has been receding steadily until it remained at 1.77 in 2020, 1.49 in 2024 and 1.42 last year. In fact, 2025 has been the ninth consecutive year in which Turkey falls below the ‘replacement rate’, which means that if Turkey does not want to lose population in the future it will probably need the arrival of foreigners. The crude birth rate has also plummeted in the last five years.

Can it go further? Yes. He latest report of TUIK suggests that the trend is far from stopping. If in 2017 the organization registered 57 provinces with a fertility rate insufficient to keep the population stable, last year that list had already skyrocketed to 76 territories. What’s more, what has grown the most is the number of provinces with the worst birth rates. If in 2017 there were only four with a fertility rate of less than 1.5, last year 59 provinces were in that situation. What’s more, in all of Türkiye there were only five regions where the replacement rate reached (or exceeded) 2.1.

In general, Turkish women not only have fewer children, they also have them later. The average age of mothers in the country at the time of giving birth has skyrocketed in recent years, going from 26.7 in 2001 to 29.4 in 2025. There are a dozen provinces in which, on average, women do not have their first child until they are almost 30 years old. In Artvin or Istanbul, in fact, the average age for new mothers is 29 years old.

What does the Government think? Türkiye’s fertility rate may have been declining for years, but still stays above of the EU average (1.34) and of course in countries like Italy, Poland, Lithuania, Spain or Mala, where this indicator does not even reach 1.2. Despite this, Erdoğan has elevated demography almost to a state issue.

In fact, he has not hesitated to cross out “disaster” the country’s low birth rates and “betrayal” of fertility control. “Why not have at least four children, or five?”, recently reflected the Turkish leader, leader of the conservative AK Parti, who on other occasions has already warned that the nation is seeing its average age increase (around 34 years old) and the weight of the elderly population.

What have they done about it? Beyond political discourse, its Executive has promoted different pro-natal measures. In April Parliament supported extending maternity leave eight to 16 weeks and last year Erdoğan himself advertisement that the Executive would increase its financial aid to families that have children, with the payment of 5,000 liras after the birth of the first-born.

“We are also implementing financial aid per child of 1,500 liras per month for the second child and 5,000 liras per month for the third and subsequent children,” advanced. The big question is whether these measures will have an effect and will encourage Turkish births.

What do people think? That’s what he tried to find out a few days ago The New York Timesthat interviewed to several Turks to find out if they would have more children or if Erdoğan’s speech was getting through to them. In general, the parents with whom the newspaper spoke complained about the rising cost of life (Türkiye records a high inflation), which makes the financial aid granted by the Government less attractive (and effective). “It’s only enough for diapers,” admits a 38-year-old man, father of four, who receives about $110 a month for his latest offspring.

The tables The TUIK also show a social change that goes beyond the merely economic: in 2025, women with higher education recorded the lowest fertility rate (1.24).

Images | LKHTK (Unsplash) and TUIK

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