The data on productivity in the US brings to light a sustained increase that has even surprised the until now president of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, admitted his astonishment declaring that “I never thought I would see a time when we had five or six years of 2% productivity growth.”
Given the rise of AI in recent years, many experts have attributed this productivity increase to AI. However, Nicholas Bloom, professor of economics at Stanford and one of the most recognized voices in teleworking research, holds that the most reasonable explanation does not go through AIbut it has more to do with teleworking. The professor defends that the change in model towards teleworking after the pandemic, has had more weight than many managers are willing to admit.
The figures that attract attention. According to the data of the Bureau of Labor Statisticsequivalent to the INE in Spain, the productivity of the non-agricultural private sector in the US grew by 5.3% in 2020, 2% in 2021, fell 1.5% in 2022, rose 1.8% in 2023, advanced 3% in 2024 and grew again by 2.2% in 2025. For Bloom, this chronological pattern is a fairly clear sign of the relationship between productivity growth and the way it has been worked since the pandemic.
The average growth of 2% in productivity from 2020 recorded in the data for the last five years contrasts with the scarce 1% that was recorded during much of the 2010 decade. This comparison is what reinforces Bloom’s argument that attributes the merit of the rebound in productivity to teleworking and not to AI, taking into account that the increase has been recorded since 2020 and not from 2022, when it was launched. ChatGPT.
Why teleworking weighs so much. Bloom resume the productivity advantage of teleworking with some quite obvious arguments: teleworking implies less time wasted traveling, fewer office distractions and easier concentration. Added to this are two more effects, also very important, which are the creation of businesses and the entry of more people into the labor market. decoupling talent hiring to a certain geographic location.
In other words, teleworking not only changes where you work from, but also gives access to a broader hiring market and saves costs to the get rid of offices. The economist defend That this mix is what explains why productivity figures have not only withstood the impact of a global crisis, but have also improved.
The stubborn return to the office. While Bloom points out that “teleworking is correlated with greater productivity growth,” large companies have done nothing but put pressure on their workforces. to get them back to the office full time.
The economist recognizes that the justification has a certain basis: more collaboration, better decisions and more learning for young employees. However, he questions the idea that you have to be there every day to get those benefits. According to your work leading a team of researchers, a hybrid model Two days in person and three days remotely is more efficient, because it leaves collaboration for the moments when it really adds value and transfers tasks that require a greater capacity for concentration to home.
AI has yet to prove itself. As and as pointed out Fortunealthough the productivity data of recent years cannot be attributed to AI because it has not yet been widely implemented in companies, it cannot be ruled out that it could have a considerable impact in the future.
According to published Reuterssome economists are beginning to see signs of improvement in productivity that could be linked to the automation provided by AI, although they are still perceived moderately and do not justify the increase of the last five years. And therein lies the key to the supposed great productive miracle of the United States, which, ironically, could have less to do with algorithms and much more to do with people. working from the couchwith coffee on the side and without having to lose half life from jam to jam on the way to work.
In Xataka | Teleworking will experience a second youth, at a very specific moment: when the boomers retire
Image | Unsplash (Flipsnack)
GIPHY App Key not set. Please check settings