They say that the devil knows more because he is old than because he is a devil. Therefore, when it comes to have a vision of the future In the technological field, few voices have the weight of Bill Gates. After all, he was one of the avant-garde protagonists of the revolution that brought about the arrival of the personal computer into our lives.
The co-founder of Microsoft gave an interview to the middle Australian Financial Review in which he presented his vision on the impact of AI on employment and warns of something that is already being debated in some political and technological circles: whether AI and robotics are going to reduce the need for laborHow will the subsistence of those who lose their jobs be guaranteed?
Taxation of the future: robots that pay taxes. The millionaire exposes a concern that other technological billionaires like elon musk or Sam Altman have already expressed on numerous occasions. As Gates explained in his interview, the arrival of AI and robotics to industrial production will have a direct impact on millions of middle and lower class workers who you may lose your job without the option to return to one of the newly created jobs that are expected to replace current jobs.
As Gates explained, “We have not yet reached the point where it is necessary to completely change tax structures, but we may do so within five years.” The businessman suggests that the solution could be to “shift the tax burden from labor, at least from medium or low-income workers, to capital, or specifically to the taxation of robots or artificial intelligence.”
The millionaire’s proposal is that, if a robot or an algorithm occupies the position of a personthat machine should contribute financially, also replacing the employee in his tax obligations. Gates does not ask that innovation be stopped, but rather that the benefits of automation not remain solely in the hands of those who own the technology, but that the benefit of this advance be distributed to society as a whole. The debate, he insists, must occur now, before the displacement of workers is irreversible.
On the verge of an inevitable transformation. The Microsoft founder acknowledges that the current focus is on the productivity offered by AI and robots, but points out that his real concern is how governments are going to manage the displacement of human workers from their jobs. It is not a question of if it will happen (something the millionaire takes for granted), but of when and with what speed.
The International Monetary Fund has already warned that up to 40% of global jobs have some degree of exposure to AI, with a special impact on middle-class workers and administrative positions, much more susceptible to automation with AI. Gates argues that governments must begin to design fiscal policies adapted to an economy where a growing percentage of the work will not be done by a contributing employee, but will fall to automated systems.
Most AI companies will fail. In his speech, the technology millionaire also left room to analyze the current scenario of technology companies participating in the AI race, and he does so with a serious warning: “If you chose the right company, like Microsoft, Google or Apple, you will have done very well. But most AI companies will fail. It is difficult for a non-technical investor to distinguish which ones will prosper.” The businessman advises not to get carried away inflated valuations and bet on established names.
The notice comes at a time of massive investment in AI projects, with prices that skyrocket the capitalization of these companies even before having demonstrated that their products They are really competitive. As in the Internet boom of the late 1990s with the dotcomwhen the dust settles only a few actors will still be standing.
Global competition and monopoly risk. Beyond the impact on AI employment, Gates warned about geopolitical competition in the development of this technology in this kind of space race that we are living. “What we are seeing now is fierce competition.” China, for example, offers AI models for free, which puts pressure on other companies to set very low prices.
“China offers free models and the rest of the companies offer very, very low prices. We would not want a single country or a single company to be the only one good at AI. But I do not see things going that way, at least for now,” said the millionaire in the face of the technological race for AI that the US and China are starring.
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