An upper stage of a SpaceX Falcon 9 has been orbiting uncontrollably for more than a year and astronomers indicate that it will end up crashing on the Moon next August. Although at first it may seem serious, the truth is that it does not represent any danger to us. However, that does not mean that the event has once again revived the debate on the space junk and what may happen in the future if the Moon ends up being inhabited.
What is going to happen and when. On August 5, at 8:44 a.m. (Spanish peninsular time), an upper stage of a Falcon 9 rocket will collide with the lunar surface at approximately 8,700 km/h, which is equivalent to about seven times the speed of sound.
The prediction It was published by Bill Grayprofessional astronomer and developer of Project Pluto software, a widely used tool for tracking near-Earth objects. According to Gray, the impact will occur in the surroundings of Einstein crater, on the edge of the visible side of the Moon from Earth.
Where does this piece of rocket come from? The stage in question, cataloged as 2025-010D, is the upper part of the Falcon 9 that launched two private lunar landers on January 15, 2025: the Blue Ghost from Firefly Aerospace and the Hakuto-R from the Japanese company ispace.
The first achieved the first completely successful commercial lunar landing in history, touching down at Mare Crisium on March 2, 2025. The second lost contact with Earth during the descent maneuver and crashed. Meanwhile, the rocket’s upper stage continued to orbit. With more than 1,000 observations accumulated since launch, Gray assures There is no doubt: it is this piece of the Falcon 9.
Why can’t it be seen from Earth. Although the Moon will be visible to much of the Western Hemisphere at the time of impact, Gray warns that the flash will almost certainly be too faint to detect with ground-based telescopes. The researcher himself remembers what happened with the LCROSS mission from NASA in 2009, when a Centaur stage deliberately impacted the lunar south pole to study the ground and yet no flash could be observed from Earth. The scientific value, if any, will come from further study of the fresh crater left by the impact.
No danger, but with a warning. The stage measures 13.8 meters long and 3.7 meters in diameter. Since the Moon does not have an atmosphere, the device will reach the surface intact. There is no risk to lunar infrastructure, rovers or ships in orbit. Still, Gray account which “does highlight a certain lack of care in the way in which remnants of space hardware are disposed of,” he writes in his report.
There is a relatively simple technical solution, and that is that with a little more planning and some extra fuel, companies that launch rockets could send these stages to heliocentric orbits (around the Sun), where they would pose no threat to either the Earth or the Moon.
Now it matters more. Both the US and China plan to multiply the pace of their lunar missions during the second half of this decade, with the aim of installing semi-permanent bases near the south pole of the Moon. The United States aims for annual missions with Artemis IV and V from 2028; China wants have your own taikonauts stepping on lunar soil before 2030.
More missions means more rockets, more unreused upper stages, and therefore more space junk orbiting near the Moon. If there were people or infrastructure on the surface then, things would get serious.
It’s not the first time it happens. Gray stumbled upon another rocket stage a few years ago. In 2022, he predicted that a piece of rocket would hit the Moon on March 4 of that year, getting the time right within seconds and the location within just a few kilometers. Gray had initially identified the object as another stage from a Falcon 9, but it turned out to be a booster from the Chinese Chang’e 5-T1 rocket. This time, however, continuous monitoring since launch rules out any doubts.
Cover image | SpaceX and NASA
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