Spain has just officially emerged from the drought that it has been dragging on since 2021. And no wonder: the reservoirs are at 83.5%; That is, the highest level recorded in the month of March in the entire historical series.
That also explains why we are not talking about it: restrictions have been lifted, administrations have been relaxed and, beyond some very specific places, no one talks about the drought anymore.
It is right at this moment that the next water crisis is being prepared.
The paradox of abundance. At least, that’s what explains Jorge Rodríguez-Chueca in The Conversation. This professor from the Polytechnic University of Madrid is convinced that now is the time to think about what would happen if it doesn’t rain more all year. Because it is precisely when water begins to run out that the system is most in danger.
After all, just one dry year (without changes in consumption) would be enough for the drought to return. The wettest January on record may be, for all we know right now, a mirage.
What really is a drought? And it is that, according to the researcherdrought does not begin when there is a lack of water; It begins when consumption is unable to adjust to the variability of inputs. That is why we must stop reactive management and start thinking ahead.
But let’s not rush: there are still scars from the drought. And, no matter how happy we are about the current situation, it would be reckless to forget that the effects of the previous drought are still with us. According to many researchers, the It started in 2021 and was the worst drought in 200 years. and, in early 2024, reservoirs reached historic lows.
It is true that the situation began to recover shortly after, but it has taken more than two years (and a historic event) for the drought to end.
A historical pattern. The most interesting thing about Rodríguez-Chueca’s work is the idea that, in periods of abundance, demand increases (not only is more water consumed, but more is irrigated, more permits are granted, and more facilities and parks are created). When drought hits, consumption is higher and that accelerates the crisis — and the margin for action is smaller.
We have seen it many times. As explained in Datadista“since the deep drought of the 1990s, each dry period has served to implement emergency measures (…) or allow practices that were not eliminated when the rains returned, they were used to expand irrigation, increasing the problem of overexploitation and contamination of aquifers and the wetlands they feed.”
Will we fall into the same mistake again? That is the big question and there are no signs to be optimistic. Above all, because the problem goes beyond what Rodríguez-Chueca points out: we are talking about a structural problem. Irrigation modernization is a poisoned gift: it reduces water needs per hectare, yes; But that has pushed many dryland farms to be converted into irrigation. Ultimately, each innovation and improvement creates a more efficient system, but more dependent on missing water.
This is what has led us to this situation.
Image | Anthony Da Costa
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