On the night of March 30, 2026, about 30 million euros they vanished. The figures They are from COAGbut (taking into account the precedents from the beginning of the decade and the growth of almond cultivation) they sound plausible: the region that concentrates the largest almond production in the country, lost around 10,000 tons due to a late frost.
And it’s not even the most interesting thing.
What the hell is up with almonds? With 70,000 hectares dedicated to almonds, the Granada Altiplano has become the national epicenter of the production of this fruit. Paradoxically, we might add. Because it is something very rare: there are not many more cases of crops that do not stop growing on the surface while their vulnerability increases to levels never seen before.
A vulnerability that, of course, is not limited to March 30. Because that would be the easy thing to do: blame everything on cold air intrusion from the north that knocked down the thermometers of the Altiplano (-5 in Galera and Baza, -4 in Puebla de Don Fabrique or -3 in Castril) just at the moment of greatest sensitivity of the almond tree. However, that is only part of the story.
Of course, frost during flowering and fruit setting is a problem. But in the last five years, the region has suffered 3 frosts of this type and the area of almond trees does not stop growing.
That is to say, the vulnerability is deeper and exceeds the climate risks: we are talking about the advance of the almond wasp, insufficient agricultural insurance, the tariff asymmetry with our main competitor (California) and, of course, the enormous pressure that international prices exert on farmers.
And what happened to the harvest? According to COAGpreliminary estimates draw a very complicated scenario: between 8,000 and 12,000 tons lost, an economic impact of between 25 and 40 million euros and the complete loss of all production in the most affected areas. The assessment of the Junta de Andalucía and the Ministry is missing, but the figures serve to measure the destruction.
Hunger with the desire to eat. Spanish almond production It was already affected by the drought and none of the explanations are surprising (late rains, winds that make pollination difficult, hailstorms in April and fungi derived from humidity). However, in 2025, things seemed to turn around and the campaign was positive.
But it was a statistical artifact: production grew by 5%but the productive surface had increased by 10. That is to say, the situation was still complicated.
And the data does not stop changing. It is enough to keep in mind that 15% of all the almond trees planted in Spain are not yet productive to understand that the crop has been experiencing a boom for years that does not end (and that may end by give us some displeasure).
What does the almond tree need to avoid becoming the new lemon? That is, so that we are not forced to have to start ripping them out in a few years. And the answer is also simple: what you need is a better safety net, a better way of looking to the future, a better way of moving in the market.
I have said it many times: In agriculture, Spain is a giant with feet of clay. And the almond tree is the best example that this is still the case and we have enormous difficulties to change it.
Image | Marcia Cripps
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