Although officially the war that is grabbing all the headlines these days is the conflict between the United States, Israel and Iranthe reality is that global geopolitics is such a hornet’s nest that the whole world is rearming itself. And while Europe discovers that it is missing essential things as ammunition opqualified personnel to manufacture themChina reaches this critical moment in an almost unbeatable position: the army of its great rival depends more and more of the Asian giant and is also just a breath away from being self-sufficient.
The document of “Trends in international arms transfers, 2025” published a few days ago by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, collects the trends, changes and main actors in the global trade in heavy weapons between the periods 2016-20 and 2021-25 and makes one thing clear: in weapons, China cooks it and China eats it.
China’s change. While the global volume of arms transfers has grown by 9.2% in the 2021-25 period, China has remained the fifth largest exporter in the world (with 5.6% of the global share). But his way of interacting with the market has changed radically: he now sells more and buys much less.
10 years ago China was the fifth largest arms importer in the world and today it barely appears in 21st place: it has dropped out of the top 10 for the first time since 1991. It is not that it has disarmed by any means. In fact, is producing fighters as if there were no tomorrow and that’s it has surpassed the United States in the production of nuclear submarines. The thing is that you no longer have to buy what you make at home abroad.
This is how global arms imports are distributed: the 10 largest importers and the rest. China is in that rest. SIPRI
Why is it important. Because China is the second military power in the world in spending (according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies) and that a country of its size and investment stops depending on the foreign market is further confirmation of the maturity of its industry. And reduce his Achilles heel: if he does not depend on anyone for weapons, there is no pressure to try to cut off his supply. Without going any further, one of China’s first measures in the tug of war over tariffs was to tighten its control framework for rare earths, essential for weapons.
On the other hand, China’s influence is not only measured by its borders, but by who depends on it: we have already seen how it is essential in the United States supply chain, but the SIPRI report highlights how it stands as the pillar of Pakistan’s defense, is the largest supplier of weapons to Sub-Saharan Africa and is opening new markets in Europe (Serbia).
Global context. The SIPRI document places this change in a context of global rearmament, especially in Europe (where there are 210% more imports) and direct competition from the United States. According to the report, the US arms export policy towards Asia and Oceania is partly determined by its objective of containing the influence of China, highlighting key recipients such as Japan, Australia and South Korea.
From ‘Made in Russia’ to ‘Made in China’. China has reduced its imports between 2016 and 2025 by 72%. Historically, the Asian giant was dependent on Russian technology, but not anymore. Of course, Russia continues to be its main supplier: it accounts for 66% of the total imported.
After the end of the Cold War, Beijing continued to depend on Moscow and its technology, but throughout the 1990s there were key moments for this turning point in Chinese strategy, such as Yinhe’s trauma in the Malacca Strait either the Taiwan Strait crisis of 1996 in which American military superiority and the need to build its own defense industry were evident.
China is rearming. Beijing already has the largest navy in the world in terms of number of ships, according to the US Department of Defense and has established itself as the reference in the deployment of hypersonic missiles. At the strategic level, the Pentagon plans that China will have more than 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030. If We analyze your most recent budgetwhich grew by 7.2%, technological self-sufficiency and scientific innovation in defense appear as the absolute priority to break any external dependence.
What it means for the rest of the world. For Russia it obviously means losing its largest and most loyal historical client. According to SIPRI data, the fall in Chinese purchases has dragged Russian exports to historic lows, aggravating the crisis in its defense industry. For the United States it is a poisoned candy: while Washington tries to reinforce its allies in the Pacific, it faces a rival that sets a pace of industrial and technological production that today is difficult for them to follow. For figures like Pete Hegseth, China is no longer just a competitor, it is the pacing threat: the threat that sets the pace and scale to which the rest of the world must try to adapt.
Countries geographically close to China are also accelerating their purchases, driven both by US reinforcement plans and their own fear. The question is how long they will be able to sustain this pulse, because, in terms of industrial mass and speed, today no one seems capable of keeping up with China.
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Cover | CCTV, SteKrueBe
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