In 1947, some funded experiments by the US army managed to cause artificial rainfall for the first time in history. Today, more than 50 countries have tried similar techniques. And in some regions of the world, modifying the sky is no longer just a scientific question, but a strategic tool with implications much deeper than it seems.
The origin of a suspicion. The simple idea that one nation is “stealing” rain from another seems like fertile ground for science fiction. In the Middle East, however, it is not born in this warbut in a mix of extreme droughts, political tensions and poorly understood technology.
It all started when in 2018, in the midst of the water crisis, an Iranian high command accused neighboring countries (including the Emirates) to prevent clouds from dumping on Iran. The hypothesis fit well in a context of regional rivalry and climate despair. And although science never supported such an idea, the concept caught on because it offered a simple explanation to a complex problem. Since then, the suspicion has evolved from an isolated comment to a recurring narrative.
The war of the clouds. The technical basis for this accusation is cloud seedinga real practice that consists of introducing particles to encourage rain. Emirates has turned it into a almost strategic policywith million-dollar investments, pilots on permanent alert and almost military protocols. Iran also uses it, but with questionable results.
The problem is that this technology, already difficult to measure, has become perfect fuel for theories of “atmospheric theft.” And so, what began as an experimental technique has led to a geopolitical narrative where clouds are perceived as contested resources.
Clouds don’t steal (although that doesn’t matter). The experts are clear: clouds are ephemeral systems that last for hours and move constantly, which makes it practically impossible that one country deliberately “steals” rain from another. Furthermore, not even is proven that planting significantly increases rainfall.
But the problem is not physics, but the perception. In an environment of extreme drought, viral images Different skies between neighboring countries or intense rains after planting operations fuel suspicion. And that suspicion, although scientifically weak, has enormous political power. Hence the images that we are seeing these days with the serious floods in the United Arab Emirates have paradoxically served as fuel for accusations on the other side.
Looking for a culprit. The narrative of “rain theft” has grown at the same rate as the Iranian water crisis. With overexploited aquifers, almost empty reservoirs, disappearing lakes and agriculture that consumes most of the water, the country faces an unsustainable structural situation.
Precipitation has fallen to historic lows. Cities are close to water collapse. And in that context, pointing out external actors serves to divert attention from decades of mismanagement, overexploitation and failed political decisions. The rain does not disappear because someone steals it, but because the system that was supposed to manage it no longer works.
Emirates, from water power to military actor. And while Iran seeks explanations, the Emirates has bet to control their water vulnerability with money, technology and strategy. Cloud seeding is just one piece of a model that also includes mass desalination and planning in the long term.
But now the context has changed dangerously. Emirates is starting to move towards a more direct involvement in the conflict with Iran. In fact, it is closing Iranian assets, putting economic pressure on it and valuing his entry into the war. And in this new scenario, that old accusation, that of stealing rain, can become one more element of political and narrative friction.
From conspiracy to escalation. If you also want, the dangerous thing is not if the accusation is truebut rather what allows justifying. In a region where energy, water and security are intertwined, turning climate into a narrative weapon opens a dangerous door.
From that perspective, tensions are no longer limited to missiles or drones, but extend to the invisible terrain of natural resources. And as the Emirates and other Gulf countries come closer to warany narrative that reinforces the idea of aggression (even if it is climatic) can escalate the conflict beyond the military.
An uncomfortable answer. So, if the question is whether Iran and the Emirates are stealing the rainthe real answer is much more disturbing than any conspiracy theory. Because it’s not that someone is deflecting the clouds with fantastic power, it’s that the climate system, the overexploitation of resources and human pressure are reducing availability of water throughout the region.
Worse still, since even when tries to “make” rainmany times there is not enough humidity to do so. And the thing is that, deep down, the real war is not for who controls the cloudsbut about how to survive in an environment where there is less and less water to distribute.
Image | USN
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