China and the electric car

October 1973. The world is divided into two clearly differentiated poles. We are in the middle of the Cold War and the clash between the United States and the Soviet Union has spread across half the world. The Missile Crisis is beginning to be far away and the confrontations between both powers are moving to Asia and Latin America.

The Operation Condor in Americathe battles in vietnam either Cambodiato give just a handful of examples. And the Yom Kippur Warof course.

It was, as we said, October 1973. Egypt and Syria, taking advantage of the Jewish holiday of Yom Kippur, attack Israel with the primary objective of recover the land lost in the Six Day War. But also with another very clear one: to demonstrate that Israel was not invincible.

The attack catches Israel, which is supported by the United States, off guard. Little by little, they manage to stop the bleeding and the Arab countries stand up. They have a weapon that goes beyond bombers: oil. An embargo on all countries that support Israel causes energy chaos.

The Oil Crisis has an enormous impact on society and, especially, on the American automobile market. The savages muscle car they are domesticated. In the second half of the 70s, the customer no longer appreciated those huge engines that were the watchword of the country.

And one country had exactly the car that the American wanted: Japan. Toyota, Nissan and Honda They made their way at a frenetic pace through the streets. The country had achieved an evolution that was key. The efficiency (and later they would discover reliability) was its great value. And Ford and General Motor were quickly relegated to the background because nationalism usually falters when the customer’s pocket is touched.

Now, a new war and a new crisis threatens to bring a paradigm shift to the automobile market. The electric car is at its best moment to convert the skeptic. And the country that is bidding hard to gain a foothold is China.

A new paradigm

Explains my colleague Alba Otero that with the Oil Crisis of 1973 four million barrels left the market. Today, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is five times more serious. The world is more interconnected, there is greater production but the market is also more sensitive, with a closed energy funnel and one of the largest fuel producers, such as Russia embargoed for its attacks on Ukraine.

The rope is tight.

So tense that the price of gasoline has skyrocketed. Diesel is much worse, with prices for “basic” fuel that are close to those offered by 98 gasoline. In two and a half weeks, the price of diesel has skyrocketed by almost 50 cents/liter on average in Spain.

The prices are so high that right now it eats up any type of savings promoted by this fuel. A car that uses 5 liters/100 kilometers costs the driver 9.55 liters per hundred kilometers.

An electric car with a consumption of 20 kWh/100 kilometers (which is not surprising) needs to pay 0.50 euros/kWh to match its price, a high figure that is associated with high-power recharging. If the car consumes 16 kWh/100 km, such as a Tesla Model 3 that circulates relatively unconcerned about consumption, it will improve spending on all recharges below 0.625 euros/kWh.

The gap is even greater if recharging is done at home. Right now, those who pay 0.15 euros/kWh, which is not a particularly attractive rate, can go 100 kilometers for 1.50 euros. They are 8.05 euros less per 100 kilometers.

The difference is so substantial that if this new crisis continues and prices remain high, we are facing the best breeding ground for the electric car. The interest of potential buyers is increasing significantly. In fact, Google searches related to the terms “cheap electric car” have soared just when more and more models begin to arrive on the market.

In recent months, the avalanche of electric cars has been unleashed. We have all kinds of options. From premium cars with hundreds of kilometers of autonomy that are equal in price to gasoline cars, like the BMW iX3 or the next Mercedes GLC either electric CLAto attractive vehicles for families such as Kia EV5, Renault Scenic either Peugeot 3008as well as urban mobility vehicles with recognized success as the BYD Dolphin Surf (one of the best-selling electric cars in Spain) or the Renault 5with the first demand band covered.

Without forgetting, of course, the Tesla Model 3 and Model Y whose low consumption and very low interest financing allow them to continue to be some of the most interesting models you can buy.

The context is especially important in a Europe that is moving towards the electric car. 2025 emissions targets pushed back to 2027 but manufacturers will have to comply with an average to be calculated in that period of time. This leads us to most expensive combustion cars in the coming months (to be less attractive and, if sold, offset possible fines) and more affordable electric vehicles (to lower average emissions).

General photography is also particularly interesting for Chinese manufacturers. Absolute technology dominators and of electric batteriesit is the country that can tighten the most on price even if tariffs on their electric cars remain.

Spain is one of the countries where we are most sensitive to price and where we are most willing to buy vehicles with an attractive quality/price ratio. Of the 10 best-selling electric cars So far this year, two are Chinese and have prices significantly lower than the competition, such as the BYD Dolphin Surf and BYD Atto 2. The weight of this country is more forceful among plug-in hybrids: four of the 10 best-selling cars are Chinese cars.

Spain is by no means a general photograph of Europe. But it does give clues as to where the market can move when we talk about lowering prices. It is no coincidence that the Chinese offensive on our continent has our country on the radar.

But, in addition, the industry chinese automobile is not having its best moment within its borders. The State has withdrawn aid for these cars and exports are more necessary than ever. The country has its eye on South America and Mexico but, when it comes to electrics, China has an excellent opportunity (and the need) to gain ground in Europe. And electric cars to achieve it.

Because, as happened in the 70s with Japan, China has the technology and cars designed by and to face a new crisis of oil.

Photo | NASA and BYD

In Xataka | China is telling us what a future full of electric cars looks like. And we already know which are the most reliable brands