China has won the electric vehicle battery race.
He’s not “winning.” He has won.
And what is coming now is little more than damage management that no Western government has the courage to explain to its citizens.
Why is it important. Lithium batteries are the heart of the electric car, but also the energy infrastructure of the 21st century. Whoever controls the battery supply chain controls, to a large extent, the global energy transition, the industrial autonomy of Western democracies and, progressively, the geopolitics of mobility.
and today That chain is almost completely controlled by China..
In figures. More than 80% of the world’s battery cells are manufactured in China. CATL, BYD and Gotion have built or announced at least 68 factories outside China in the last decadewith a joint investment that exceeds 45,000 million dollars.
In 2024, for the first time, these companies invested more money building plants abroad than within their own country.
Between the lines. Chinese expansion is the next phase of an industry that has matured to the point that opening factories abroad is more profitable than staying at home. CATL declares a margin of 29% in its international operations compared to 23% in China. They have already surpassed their home market.
This also explains why political photogenicity is so global:
The flags are local but the technology is chinese.
Yes, but. The expansion is not painless. In Hungary, CATL has had to face environmental protestsa dispute over water use and collective dismissals of local workers.
The promise implicit in each inauguration regarding employment, technology transfer and economic integration frequently collides with a slightly more austere reality.
The big question. How long would it take to close this gap even if the West suddenly put its all into it? The honest answer is quite discouraging: It would take decades, not years..
The Chinese advantage in research, supplier ecosystems and accumulated learning curve is not achieved overnight, no matter how many subsidies are awarded or with a speech at a plant inaugurated with local flags. It is built generation by generation.
Featured image | Xataka
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