It took Germany more than seven decades to speak again openly to build the most powerful army of Europe. For much of that time, its military spending was conditioned by the political and legal limits imposed after World War II. Today, however, the country that for years symbolized European strategic pacifism has become the largest investor military of the continent.
And that change is having consequences far beyond its borders.
Perplexed in half of Europe. The meeting that took place yesterday in the Oval Office left an image that is difficult to ignore: Donald Trump publicly attacking to Spain while German Chancellor Friedrich Merz remained silent at his side. The US president accused Madrid of the “veto” in Rota and of not assuming its share of NATO military spending, and threatened with economic reprisalsa warning that was surprising for its harshness against a European ally.
When it was Merz’s turn to respond, avoided questioning the tone or substance of the threat and limited itself to pointing out that all members of the Alliance must increase your investment in defense. The scene drew attention because the leader of the most powerful country in the European Union did not come to the defense of a community partner at a time of maximum diplomatic tension.
A calculated strategy. They remembered in the New York Times that very possibly the chancellor’s silence was not improvised. His strategy in the White House was to avoid any direct confrontation in front of the cameras and reserve disagreements for private conversations. Merz had arrived in Washington with the intention of maintaining a functional relationship with an unpredictable president and very sensitive to public criticism.
The German priority was to discuss the conflict with Iran, the war in Ukraine and trade tensions with Europe without provoking a head-on clash with Trump. This calculation would explain why the chancellor chose to let the attacks on Spain (and the United Kingdom) pass during the meeting, even knowing that the scene would generate discomfort in several European capitals.
127,000 million reasons. There is, however, an even simpler reason behind this caution: the gigantic rearmament program German. Faced with public reluctance from Spain, Germany is preparing to spend around of 127 billion dollars in defense this year, a figure that makes it by far the largest military investor in Europe.
The German Government’s plan is even more ambitiouswith the aim of raising spending up to 3.5% of GDP in the coming years and build the most powerful conventional army on the continent. This strategic leap marks the end of decades of military containment and places Berlin at the center of the new European balance of power.
The German project. The German bet responds to a combination of factors: the war in Ukraine, fear of Russian aggressiveness and the perception that the United States could reduce its commitment to European security. After decades of reducing its army, Berlin tries recover capabilities at great speed and become the military pillar of the continent.
This process is also transforming its defense industry, with companies like Rheinmetall expanding rapidly thanks to the increase in the military budget. If the Government’s plans are fulfilled, Germany will end up spending more on defense that France and the United Kingdom (and, of course, Spain) together in conventional capacities, a change that profoundly alters the military balance within Europe.
Two diametrically opposed visions. In that context, the clash with Spain is better understood. While Germany pushes a massive increase of defense spending within NATO, Madrid has shown a more cautious stance regarding this increase and has defended more critical positions regarding some recent military operations.
From the German perspective, the central issue was not the Trump threat, but the fact that Spain stayed away of the new rearmament consensus that Berlin is trying to consolidate among the European allies. That’s why Merz responded by underlining the need for all Alliance members to meet agreed military spending targets.
A delicate balance. If you like, the chancellor’s attitude actually reflects a deeper strategic tension. Germany aspires to lead a stronger Europe militarily, but at the same time it needs to maintain a close relationship with the United States for this project to be viable. The US nuclear umbrella, technological cooperation and the NATO structure remain essential pillars of European security.
In that context and always from the German prism, confront publicly Trump would have put at risk a balance that Berlin considers fundamental for its own rearmament project. The result is a cautious or fearful diplomacy that seeks to strengthen Europe without breaking the link with Washington, even when that balance forces silence in such uncomfortable and embarrassing moments for half of Europe.
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