In just four days of fighting, they have launched hundreds of missiles and drones over several Gulf countries, the Strait of Hormuz has seen paralyzed the transit of a fifth of the world’s oil and gas prices in Europe they have been shot about 50% in a matter of hours. What began as an offensive aimed to quickly neutralize A concrete threat has become a crisis that already affects markets, embassies and military bases throughout the region.
It had to be “surgical”. The joint offensive of the United States and Israel was born with an “official” goal: Neutralize the Iranian missile program and dismantle its response capability before it could reorganize. It was assumed that the initial attacks, directed against hardened installations and command centers, would leave Tehran disoriented and with little room to react.
However, four days later, the reality is another. Iran has not only continued launching ballistic missiles, but has shown that its military structure I was prepared to absorb decapitations and continue operating. The war has not ended in an initial phase of incontestable air supremacy.
The mystery of the arsenal. Washington recognizes that completely eliminating Iranian ballistic missiles is extremely complex. Part of the production is undergroundfortified, and the systems can be disassembled, transported and reassembled. Israel claims to have destroyed hundreds of shuttles, but the shooting continues.
The question is no longer where they are, but how many are left. The historical precedent of hunting of Scud in 1991which barely achieved verifiable results despite a massive air campaign, weighs as a warning. Because damage assessment from the air rarely offers absolute certainty.
The decentralization that avoided the collapse. I was counting this morning the Financial Times that, after the death of the supreme leader and senior commanders in the first bombings, the Iranian response did not stop, accelerated. Command was previously decentralized to prevent the elimination of key figures from paralyzing the operational chain.
The middle I remembered that the units now act with general guidelines already established. This explains the speed with which the attacks began against US bases, energy infrastructure and targets in the Gulf. It does not seem like improvisation, but execution of a designed plan for a long war.
Iran’s key naval base in Strait of Hormuz set on fire in attacks
Saturation, wear and western cost. American and allied defenses are being tested in an unprecedented scale. Low-cost drones, ballistic missiles short and medium range and electronic warfare capabilities are forcing Patriot and THAAD systems to be deployed on multiple fronts simultaneously.
We talk about the embassy protectionbases and energy assets that encompass an immense space. Even when interceptors work, the economic cost is disproportionate: because shooting down a drone can cost several times more than manufacturing it. In addition, the chaos in the sky has caused fire incidents friend and low. In short, the feeling of absolute control, if there was one at any time before the attack, has been eroded.
The Gulf as a field of economic pressure. Because Iran has gone beyond direct confrontation with Israel and the United States. It has hit energy facilities in Qatar and Saudi Arabiahas tense traffic until it closes a few hours ago through the Strait of Hormuz and has sent gas and oil prices skyrocketing.
The Eurozone, in fact, already fears a severe inflationary spike if the conflict continues. The message in this scenario is clear: war is not limited to the exchange of projectiles, it is also fought in the markets. Global economic stability is part of the battlefield.
Displacing the neighbors. The Gulf States, which had attempted to maintain cautious neutrality, now find themselves under direct fire. Hundreds of missiles and drones have been detected and intercepted over the Emirates and other countries, which are preparing to counterattack.
The scale and speed of the attacks have surprised even those who expected retaliation. The regional outrage growsbut also the bewilderment at the unexpected magnitude of the Iranian response. Tehran, in short, is demonstrating the ability to strike broadly and sustainably.
The idea that no one contemplated. So, four days after the start of the offensive, an uncomfortable realization is imposed in Washington and Jerusalem: Iran is not collapsing, far from it. Has not exhausted its launch capacity nor his will to climband your bet combines volume, dispersion and structural resistance.
Hence the unknown about the actual size of its arsenal remains open, and as long as that question does not have a definitive answer, each missile intercepted is not a strategic victory, but rather a most uncertain extension. The campaign that was to quickly neutralize the threat thus faces a scenario that did not appear in the initial calculations: Iran not only resists, has margin to expand the conflict and turn it into something much more unstable and explosive than anyone had anticipated.
Image | ESA, Hossein Velayati, Planet Labs
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