Just when Europe breathed a sigh of relief, convinced of having stabilized its energy supply after the traumatic cut of ties with Putin’s Russia, the specter of the 2022 crisis has materialized again. A new “Black Monday” has shaken international markets, but this time the epicenter is not in Eastern Europe, but in the waters of the Persian Gulf.
An unprecedented escalation of war in the Middle East has culminated with the temporary closure of the largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in the world. Europe reaches this moment in a position of vulnerability, since the gas market has mutated: it has ceased to be a simple raw material and has become a “high-speed financial asset” dominated by volatility. Added to this is that the continent has changed its dependency of Russian gas pipelines by methane tankers from the US and Qatar, today facing unusually low gas stores.
The spark that set the markets on fire jumped on March 2, 2026. The state-owned company QatarEnergy issued a statement announcing the cessation of production of LNG and associated products after suffering military attacks on its strategic facilities in Ras Laffan and the industrial city of Mesaieed.
According to the Qatari Ministry of Defense collected by Al Jazeerathe country was attacked by drones launched from Iran. One hit a water tank in Mesaieed and another hit an energy facility in Ras Laffan. Although the toll is about 20 injured and “minimal damage” after a rain of dozens of drones and missiles against the country, the decision to paralyze operations in Ras Laffan – which manages a capacity of 77 million tons per year—has been devastating.
The chaos, however, not limited to Qatar. We are facing a regional domino effect. Saudi Arabia has been forced to temporarily close units of its giant Ras Tanura refinery after Iranian drones were intercepted. In parallel, Iraq has stopped the flow of a key pipeline to Türkiye for security reasons, and the Israeli government has ordered Chevron to halt production from its huge Leviathan gas field.
The energy system faces a logistical problem
There are some 150 ships paralyzed in the areawhich means an effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuzthe bottleneck through which a fifth of the world’s maritime oil and gas trade transits. The situation is so serious that, according to the Financial Timeshalf of the world’s largest marine insurers will suspend their war risk coverage in the area, completely deterring cargo ships.
But the paralysis of QatarEnergy has a deeper reading. For geopolitical analyst Bachar El-Halabi, consulted through their social networksthis is not just a supply shock, but a clever maneuver. By stopping production, Doha internationalizes the conflict: sends the message that it will not be a simple passive game board and puts the pressure directly on its partners in Washington, Europe and Asia.
The macroeconomic impact is already visible. From the British environment They point to widespread falls in the stock markets -with the Stoxx Europe 600 losing almost 2%— and a flight of investors towards gold. As stated by Simone Tagliapietra, analyst at the Bruegel think tank cited by Bloomberg: “The threat to security of supply is immediate (…) we are facing a new scenario.”
So, is the price of gas going to rise?
The market’s immediate reaction has been one of true panic. The reference gas contract in Europe (Dutch TTF) recorded intraday increases of more than 50%. According to data collected by The Economistthe megawatt hour jumped sharply from below 40 euros up to touching 47.5 euros. At the same time, Brent oil rose 9%, hovering around $80 per barrel.
The European citizen might ask: “If only 10% of the LNG that reaches Europe passes through the Strait of Hormuz, why does it affect us so much?” The energy expert Joaquín Coronado sums it up perfectly: Gas markets do not operate based on isolated physical volumes, but rather based on global prices. If Asia suddenly loses the Qatari tap, it will compete fiercely with checkbook against Europe for shipments from the United States or Africa. In fact, Coronado warns that the consulting firm ICIS projects that a closure 90 days in Hormuz would raise the TTF up to €92/MWh.
However, in the midst of the noise, analytical voices ask for calm. The columnist of Bloomberg Javier Blas he remembered on his social networkssupported by the economic journalist Miquel Roig, who although a 45% rise is scary in the headlines, the current ones €46/MWh They are nothing compared to the absolute record of €345/MWh in the summer of 2022. As Blas states: “As always, putting the wide angle lens on helps.”
Although we are far from historical highs, the current situation finds Europe unprotected. Joaquin Coronado provides worrying information: European gas storages are at 30%7.5 points below the 2025 level. In Xataka we explain it with the phenomenon of backwardation: since gas in the future was cheaper than current gas, it was not worth it for companies to fill their warehouses.
This price spike has direct and immediate consequences. Crowned already advance that the price of electricity in the Spanish wholesale market (OMIE) will reach €106.6/MWh in tomorrow’s peak hours. For intensive industries (such as chemicals, fertilizers or ceramics), the profitability threshold usually is among the 50 and 60 €/MWh. If prices stagnate there, we could see a new wave of factory closures and a rebound in inflation.
On this board, Spain lives its own paradox. Although it has regasification plants and ships on its coasts, it functions as an “energy island.” Our country lacks sufficient interconnections (pipes through the Pyrenees) to pump all that gas to Germany or Central Europe, preventing Spain from serving as a total lifeline for the continent.
The closure of the QatarEnergy plant serves as a stark reminder of current energy geopolitics. Europe believed it had shielded its system by becoming independent of piped gas from Russia, but it simply has replaced one vulnerability with another: dependence on sea routes and American and Qatari LNG.
As analysts point out consulted by Financial Timesthe biggest fear right now is not the bombing itself, but the ambiguity about the future of the region. Markets are no longer discounting a simple geopolitical “scare”, but rather the latent risk of a prolonged conflict. If diplomacy fails to put out the flames in the Persian Gulf and reopen naval traffic, the electricity and gas bill will once again be the great economic headache of 2026.
Image | Stefano Campolo
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