Everything indicates that hostilities have ceasedand with a result that at this point few observers expected: Netflix has given up bidding more for Warner Bros., paving the way for Paramount to take over the media giant for about $111 billion. It is the (foreseen) outcome of a bidding war that started in October 2025 and that now gives a new kick and unexpectedly reorders the panorama of the streaming and global entertainment.
The war dates back to 2016. That is, to the purchase of Time Warner by AT&T in October 2016 for $85.4 billion, including debt. The intention was to combine the largest telephone company in the United States with the assets of HBO, CNN, Warner Bros. Pictures and DC Comics to build a technological and entertainment giant. There were problems from the beginning (the merger was delayed almost a year due to legal issues) and it deprived the company of the optimal launch window for HBO Max in a market that was already beginning to become saturated with streaming services. streaming. In 2021 AT&T would give WarnerMedia to Discovery.
Expenses and more expenses. The new Warner Bros. Discovery had ambition. Its CEO David Zaslav presented a project of 20 billion annual expenses to reach 400 million global subscribers, but none of that was fulfilled: the shares have fallen 60% since 2022, with losses of 35 billion dollars in market capitalization. In June 2025, Warner advertisement which was separated into two companies: one for studios and streaming and another for linear networks (with CNN, TNT Sports, Discovery and Bleacher Report). The aim was to release the burden of the cable channels, which were mainly responsible for a debt of 37,000 million.
Back to the ring. This split once again makes Warner Bros. a more attractive target than a conglomerate with dozens of cable television channels and millions in debt. In October, it formally opened a sales process, which boosted its price by more than 10%. Three names stood out from the rest: Netflix, NBCUniversal and Paramount Skydance. The first two only wanted studies and streamingthe third was willing to buy the entire company. According to some analyststhis made the operation very risky for Paramount, but very interesting for Warner. David Ellison, CEO of Paramount, had even made three informal offers before October, which had been rejected.
Bidding war. In November the three candidates presented their proposals non-binding: Paramount at $25.50 per share (the first of all, a month earlier, had been $19), Netflix and Universal with non-public offers. In December there was a second round, and Paramount rose to $26.50 per share. Universal pulled out. On December 5, Netflix was considered a winner from the auction with $27.75 per share and without counting the channels.
Paramount’s tantrum. Three days later, David Ellison launched a hostile offer directly to WBD shareholders: $30 per share in cash for the entire company. The offer was supported by the Ellison family, the private equity fund RedBird Capital, the sovereign wealth funds of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. From there, offers followed. backed by the CEO’s fatherLarry Ellison. He continued to raise the price and continued to address shareholders directly, without success.
Paramount’s triumph. In February, Netflix granted Warner a seven-day waiver to resume talks with Paramount: after what Sarandos described as “flooding the area with confusion,” Paramount was forced to come up with its best proposal or be ruled out. On February 24, put on the table $31 per share in cash, plus the assumption of debt and several extras: a regulatory penalty fee of $7 billion if regulators blocked the closure, the assumption of payment of the $2.8 billion that WBD would owe to Netflix if it broke its current agreement, and a holding fee for shareholders if regulatory approval was extended beyond fall 2026.
The shareholders waited for a counteroffer from Netflix, but it did not arrive: the profitability projections Above $30 per share were very complicated: the share price had grown 63% compared to Paramount’s first offer. Ted Sarandos, co-CEO of Netflix, had traveled to Washington that same day to meet with Trump administration officials, is spoken that looking for more data on the regulatory environment. Before the end of the meeting, Netflix had already spoken: it was not going to raise its offer for purely financial reasons, which made Paramount’s option more than possible a winner, in the absence of formal confirmation from shareholders.
And now what? Well, immediate effect: Netflix shares rose about 13%, Paramount gained 5%, Warner fell 2%. That is to say, the market celebrates Netflix’s retreat. On the table, a few issues to resolve: the formal board vote and the regulatory approval phase (which, in the best scenario projected by Paramount, will not conclude before September 30, 2026) that can explode in countless areasalthough the climate is favorable given the political situation (the relationship between Larry Ellison and Trump – one financed the other’s campaign – is more than public).
Where are we now. Netflix has many other tentacles to grow with. For example, it has just reached an agreement with Sony whereby the company’s releases (the Spiderverse films, yes, but also the next ‘Zelda’ or the Beatles films by Sam Mendes) will have an exclusive world premiere with the platform. Something similar happens with Universal: Netflix is the streaming premiere platform for franchises like ‘Jurassic World’. Netflix ended 2025 with more than 325 million paying subscribers and projects revenues of between $50.7 billion and $51.7 billion by 2026. It is not doing badly, and will increase its investment in content to approximately $20 billion annually, according to its quarterly letter to shareholders.
On the other hand, we will have an entity that combines two of the five active traditional Hollywood studios with a multitude of linear channels and two streaming services. streaming. Of course, it is still early to talk about mergers between HBO Max and Paramount+, sales of Warner’s historical archive to alleviate debts or conflicts between CNN and CBS News, now under the same roof to the distrust of defenders of freedom of expression. The industry that in 2019 seemed to fragment into dozens of platforms is once again compressed into an oligopoly even smaller than before. And those who lose out, to the surprise of absolutely no one, are, once again, the consumers and a future of increasingly scarce offers.
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