the great Spanish paradox of forest risk

It seems like a contradiction, but that’s how paradoxes work. And this one in particular is so problematic for Spain that in nine out of ten configurations the result is always the same: whatever happens is bad for fires.

But why? I mean, how is it possible that whether it rains or not, this country always has a problem with flames?

The world on two scales. If it doesn’t rain, if we endure weeks or months of drought, the humidity of the material accumulated in the mountains (grass, bushes, leaf litter) drops. In addition, the soil temperature rises and living vegetation begins to become stressed. Just one spark is missing and boom, we have a fire source that is very difficult to stop.

That is, drought worsens the risk today. The rain makes it worse, but it will do so tomorrow.

Because if it rains, the vegetation grows (especially what we call fine fuel) and the continuity of the scrub increases. It’s biomass, biomass and more biomass. If it rains there is no risk, if it doesn’t rain: it is material that sooner rather than later will become fodder for the flames.

The hell of the summer of 2025, started in spring… Sometimes we don’t focus much on this: wet springs are wonderful, but in our case it is also a potential danger. Not only because of what I explained above, but because (also) no one manages it.

And that means that, if the trend continues in the direction it is going, we have to start seeing rainy winters as more than just a way to save the season. We must begin to see them as a clear reminder that we must invest in prevention, plan devices, firewalls, fuel management and all types of extensive farms that help contain the problem.

Because climate change is not just “warmer.” A few days ago, AEMET itself reflected on How rainfall records are changing. Changes in the landscape and rural abandonment are a permanent source of problems and the so-called “bullwhip effect” only increases them: growth phases and drying phases that never stop coming and going.

So yes, the great Spanish paradox with rains and fires is this: no matter what happens, in the coming years, we will always have problems with fires.

Image | Karsten Winegeart

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