If the US attacks Iran like Venezuela, it will be a drain in both directions.

In recent weeks, the United States has concentrated hundreds of aircraft and support assets around the Middle East, while commercial satellites captured unusual movements around the Iranian capital. That combination of deployments and repositioning It has raised tension and forced us to rethink calculations about what a direct collision would really entail.

The temptation to copy Caracas. I remembered this morning the new york times that when Donald Trump compared an eventual offensive against Iran with the lightning operation which allowed Nicolás Maduro to be captured in Caracas, raised the idea of ​​rapid, surgical and decisive action. The problem is that the parallelism is quite misleading from its strategic basis.

Venezuela offered a aging airspace and weakly defended, in addition to an accessible political objective, while Tehran is supported by a theocratic structure consolidated for almost half a century, a Revolutionary Guard of some 150,000 troops and a regional network of militias that can open multiple fronts. There is no “clean” or low-cost option, and any attempt to decapitate the regime would involve a sustained campaign with real risk of American casualties and regional escalation. And not only that.

Satellite images. The latest images commercial flights from space through Airbus and Planet Labs have shown something that changes the calculus: the relocation of S-300 systems long-range around Tehran and Isfahan, accompanied by the Cobra-V8 electronic warfare in key positions south of the capital.

This combination combines interceptors capable of hitting targets hundreds of kilometers away with powerful jamming capabilities in critical bands for radars, satellite links and designation pods, which points directly to the US “kill chain” before the missiles even enter their range. The signal is clear: Iran not only wants or can fire, it also wants blinddegrade and force attackers to operate closer and with greater exposure.

A shield that complicates air attack. He S-300PMU-2with high-speed missiles and three-dimensional radars optimized for detect targets at low altitudesuch as drones and cruise missiles, constitutes the hard shell of the Iranian system, while the Cobra-V8 system seeks to erode and wear down the sensory advantage of American platforms like AWACS or even electronic suppression aircraft.

Although there are doubts about the full integration of these systems and the absence of advanced fighters that act as overhead sensors, their deployment near the capital suggests an architecture designed to survive the first wave of attacks and force Washington to devote additional resources to suppression and electronic warfare. In other words, it is no longer just about dropping bombs, but about winning a previous battle in the electromagnetic spectrum.

Missiles and multiple fronts. Added to this defensive armor is one of the missile arsenals wider Middle Eastwith medium-range systems capable of hitting US bases and allied cities more than 2,000 kilometersin addition to drones, anti-ship weapons and recent sea-based air defense tests in the Strait of Hormuz.

In fact, it is entirely plausible that Iran could scale quickly through its so-called “axis of resistance”, activating Hezbollah, the Houthis or Iraqi militias to disperse the cost and expand the theater of the conflict. All this, of course, while threatening a road along which nearly a fifth of of world oil and gas. The logic, therefore, is dissuasive: any blow against Tehran would have an immediate echo in Israel, in the Gulf and in the planet’s energy trade.

An indentation in both directions. The result of this equation is that the comparison with Caracas is diluted facing a scenario where the Iranian capital has become a strongly defended and electromagnetically contested space. The satellite images do not show a disarmed country, but one that has strengthened its core strategic in anticipation of a modern aerial suppression campaign.

In short, if the United States plans to attack as he did it in Venezuelayou will not face an operational vacuum, but rather an environment saturated with missilesinterference and possible regional retaliation, a full-blown clash that threatens to become a combat with casualties in both directions from day one.

Image | Airbus, Planet Labs

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