Since post-war Europe, immigration has been a silent constant in the economic reconstruction of the continent, first to supply labor in industry and later to sustain growth and the welfare state in increasingly aging societies. Over the decades, this phenomenon went from being an assumed necessity to becoming a central political debate, especially after EU enlargements and economic crises. Today, Europe once again faces a question that it thought had been resolved: how far it is willing to go to remain an open space.
The nerve figure. The idea we tell it a few months ago. Switzerland heads to a vote which condenses many of the tensions accumulated in Europe during the last decade: demographic growth, immigration, housing and the economic model. The proposal to set an absolute limit of 10 million inhabitantsdriven by the Swiss People’s Partyreaches the polls after gathering the necessary signatures in a country where direct democracy turns social unrest into state decisions.
The situation: with a current population of 9.1 million and growth much higher than that of its neighbors, the debate no longer revolves around whether Switzerland can continue to grow, but rather whether if you want to do it.
From attractive to “saturated” country. For decades, Swiss prosperity rested on high wages, political stability and an open economy capable of attracting both low-skilled labor and international talent. This success has had an increasingly visible reverse: a 27% foreign residentsa stressed real estate market and increasing pressure on infrastructure and public services.
For defenders of the population cap, this growth has become uncontrollable and threatens the quality of life, but for its detractors, it is precisely the engine that has sustained the country’s wealth.
The limit and its consequences. The initiative, a priori, does not propose a gradual system or flexible quotas, but rather a rigid, hard limit, which would force action once it exceeds 9.5 million and which, upon reaching 10 million, would literally imply close almost completely the entry of new residents, including asylum seekers and family reunifications.
This absolute nature is possibly what most worries economists and companies, which warn of an abrupt stop to the arrival of workers just when the aging of the population is beginning to be noticed and the demand for labor remains high.
Europe as a red line. The most delicate point of the plan is precisely its direct impact on the relationship with the European Union. The reason is very simple: if the limit is not respected, the Government would be obliged to abandon the agreement of free movement of people, the cornerstone of the treaties that guarantee Switzerland access to the single market.
In a country where nearly half of exports go to the EU, breaking that link is not only a migration issue, but a structural change of the economic model built over decades.
The economy versus the emotional vote. Other factors appear here, since multinationals and employers have reacted harshlywarning of relocations, loss of innovation and additional tensions on the pension system, largely fueled by foreign workers.
For its part, the business lobby Economiesuisse has described the proposal of chaoticwhile academics emphasize that the recent stagnation of real wages and the increase in the cost of living have created a perfect breeding ground for looking for culprits in immigration, although the problems have more complex roots.
Beyond the census. Polls show a country divided almost in half, with a support close to 48% which makes the result unpredictable. So it doesn’t seem like it’s just about deciding how many people can live in Switzerland.
The fundamental crux points elsewhere: defining what kind of country do you want to be in an increasingly tense European environment. Either one that preserves its openness at the cost of better managing its internal imbalances, or another that raises a symbolic limit and assumes the risk of redefining its relationship with Europe and with its own idea of prosperity.
And, meanwhile, Europe hold your breath for what may arise from the decision.
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