As said Kevin Killeen“February is the worst month of the year, but it is an honest month.” And February 2026 is no exception in its honesty: the models gave historic rainfall throughout the Atlantic coast and the south of the peninsula and the rainfall is already here.
The jet stream is going to pass over us so “constant and uniform” throughout the week. But it is not just the “concatenation of storms generated” by this, it is that “they are going to be fed with high moisture content” that comes directly from the Gulf of Mexico.
What would have been excellent news three years ago has become a huge problem: this succession of storms arrives at a time when the soil cannot absorb even one more drop.
A truly exceptional accumulation. To land the data, the latest models accumulated dan for this week of more than 100-150mm and up to 300 in areas of Galicia, Extremadura and Andalusia. In the case of Andalusia, in fact, the situation will be very complicated due to the extension of the Guadalquivir valley and the composition of its soil.
More than 200mm are expected at the head of the river and a homogeneous average of 100mm in the basin. That, added to the fact that “The soil is clay and its use is agricultural.“, the filtration is very scarce. This has turned the flooding of the rivers and streams in the Guadalquivir basin and adjacent areas (such as the Guadalete or the Mediterranean basins of Granada) into a ticking bomb.
“The highest hydrometeorological impacts in the world”. As Martín León explainedis not a figure of speech, it is an enormous risk: the highest impacts in the world are expected. In fact, as the hours pass, the predictions they seem to get worse and floods, overflows and landslides seem inevitable.
The first symptoms of flooding, in fact, have already been detected in Andalusia via satellite.
How normal is this? To emphasize that we are not facing a normal situation, it is enough to take a look at the ECMWF EFIthe index that measures how extreme the atmospheric phenomena are: the entire south-southwest of the peninsula is in red, the highest level.
Rain on wet. But, as I say, that is not the main problem. The main problem is that, after these days of heavy rain, the soil is extremely saturatedthe reservoirs are being forced to drain and the system’s retention capacity is at minimum levels. In mountain areas, water it’s starting to flow directly from the ground.
To this we can add that the Pyrenees and the rest of the northern mountains they have a historic snow pack. We are, as all models show, in the middle of a perfect storm.
This means that the Hydrographic Confederations will have a lot of work and the problems have only just begun. Special attention will have to be paid to rivers, streams and areas at risk of land displacement.
Complicated hours are approaching and any precaution will be insufficient.
Image | WXCharts
In Xataka | Spain is preparing for a “festival” of storms in February: with more rain than normal and hardly any cold
GIPHY App Key not set. Please check settings