Since the Mao timesperiodic purges have been a common tool of power in China to reassert Party control over the military and eliminate real or potential threats. In fact, every generation of leaders has turned to them in moments of internal tensionalmost always wrapped in accusations of corruption or disloyalty, as a reminder that in Beijing political stability has always outweighed military continuity.
Unknown territory. If these military purges have been part of the DNA of the Chinese system, the Zhang Youxia’s falluntil now the most powerful general in the country and historical ally of Xi Jinping, marks an unprecedented turning point.
It is not only the breadth of the cleaning (the deepest in decades) nor the fact that it has left practically dismantled the leadership of the army, but the strategic context in which it occurs, with China facing the United States in a systemic rivalry and with Taiwan as a backdrop permanent.
The radically new element. But what makes this purge something different from all the previous ones is the accusation, leaked in internal briefings, that Zhang had given the United States critical information about the chinese nuclear program.
If even partially confirmed, the scandal would not be a simple case of corruption or political disloyalty, but a direct breach in the core of strategic deterrence from Beijing, something unprecedented in the modern history of the PLA and potentially devastating for the balance of power between the two superpowers.
Decapitation of commanders. I remembered the BBC that the simultaneous purge of Zhang and Liu Zhenli has reduced the Central Military Commission to an almost empty structure, with Xi and a single active general, with a political rather than an operational profile.
That emptying breaks the model collegiate body designed to plan and direct war, creates a leadership vacuum recognized even by Chinese and foreign analystsand leaves millions of soldiers under a weakened chain of command at a time of maximum external pressure.
Corruption and power. Officially, most of the media agree a simple summary: explained by corruption and violation of party discipline, but how do we count a few months ago, recent history suggests that the anti-corruption campaign also functions as a mechanism to eliminate rivalsdismantle personal networks and guarantee absolute loyalty to the leader.
The result is a almost total control of Xi on the army, comparable only to that of Mao, but at the cost of generating a climate of suspicion that can translate into paralysis, extreme caution and less professional military decisions.
Taiwan in the background. In the short term, the elimination of experienced commanders (including some of the few with actual combat experience) seems reduce capacity of the Chinese military to carry out complex operations such as an invasion of Taiwan.
However, the experience of previous purges suggests that the replacements tend to be younger, more ideologized and dependent on Xi, which could lead, perhaps in a few years, to a less professional force but more aggressive and less able to question risky orders.
The final message. There is no doubt, by sacrificing even a personal ally and “red prince”, Xi sends an unmistakable sign at the forefront: no position, relationship or history protects against suspicion of corruption, disloyalty or, of course, leaking of strategic secrets.
If you want, also project a disturbing image abroad: if Washington has had access to chinese nuclear information (that remains to be seen), the rivalry between both powers would enter a much more dangerous and unpredictable. That is why this purge is not just another episode of internal control, but an event that introduces the Chinese armed forces (and the global geopolitical pulse) in a truly unprecedented setting.
Image | President of Russia, US DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE
In Xataka | China’s military is becoming one of the largest in the world. The only problem is the purges
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