AEMET warns that, after the cold, something much more problematic comes

The Mediterranean asks to speak and the polar jet seems ready to give it all the prominence: if everything goes as planned, after a very cold weekend,

What is happening? That the polar jet is contorting again and, this time, it is going to turn so far south that a good part of Spain is going to be in the cold zone. We will change the warm and humid air masses of the Gulf for cold masses that, since they are not arctic, will also have a lot of humidity.

For practical purposes, that does not stop the “train of storms” that was affecting us; but its temperature. Therefore, the “storms, fronts, wind and rough seas“will be accompanied, once again, by a drop in temperatures: snow is, in fact, expected in the north of the Sahara.

That and a strong storm in the middle of the Mediterranean.

But let’s start with the cold. During the weekend (accompanied by that contortion of the jet) orA mass of cold air will invade Spain: Not only will the minimum temperatures drop and frost will return to a large part of the country, but the maximum temperatures will suddenly collapse.

The great Mediterranean storm. Although on Saturday the 17th there will be movement in the Gulf of Valencia and the Balearic Sea, the strong will begin on Monday the 19th. That day, the undulation of the polar jet has a good chance of setting up a very powerful cyclogenesis.

A cyclogenesis is an intensification of a low and, the Mediterranean knows a lot about that: the arrival of cold air at altitude over a fairly warm sea only needs a good shot of humidity to transform into a very intense storm. These days we will have all the elements on the table.

And what can we expect? The models are beginning to converge in a full-fledged winter storm in the Balearic Islands and the Mediterranean coast. Although, as Martín León explains“it could leave abundant rain and snow in medium-high areas in the eastern part of the Peninsula”; The truth is that the position and intensity of the storm is still unclear. And those uncertainties will make the difference between a cold calm or a real winter storm.

Image | ECMWF

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