Six in the afternoon. Closed night. You arrive in the cold and turn on the heating without thinking. The radiator breathes warmly and, next to it, last winter’s gas bill appears, folded between papers. One glance is enough to bring back the question that opens every coat season: how much will the joke cost this winter? The answer, after three harsh winters, seems somewhat kinder. But only in part. The present offers a respite, while beneath it continues to beat an energy contradiction that Europe has not been able to resolve.
A kinder winter. Analysts confirm it: this winter will be more benign than previous ones. In an interview with Xataka, Javier RevueltaSenior Principal at AFRY, sums it up bluntly: “We have much cheaper gas than last winter. Before we were at €50–55/MWh; now we are around €30/MWh.” And that matters, because gas determines a good part of the electricity price in the cold months. According to Revuelta, this drop alone means “about €40/MWh less” in many hours of winter. It is worth remembering that this year has been a record for new solar power —more than 9 gigawatts installed— and everything points because this winter There will be more radiation and less cloudiness than the previous one. The result: more renewables pushing prices down.
However, the Spanish system continues to show shadows. As we have already explained on other occasionsAfter the blackout on April 28, Red Eléctrica was forced to reinforce the operation of the synchronous plants—that is, the gas combined cycles—to avoid new surges. Between May and October, its production increased by more than 50%, generating an additional 2.5 million tons of CO₂. An uncomfortable reminder: even in the European country with the most renewables per inhabitant, gas remains the system’s safety net.
How will it affect the pocket? The electricity consumer will notice a certain relaxation in their bills. More solar hours, less gas pressure and a more stable market mean a more predictable winter. For one thing, homes with gas heating will also see softer bills this winter. But the good news has a deadline. Starting in 2028, the new European ETS2which will force distribution companies to pay for the final consumer’s emissions. In practice: gas will be more expensive structurally. In fact, Revuelta anticipates it: “In the medium term, operating a boiler will be significantly more expensive,” and the comparison with heat pumps will clearly lean towards the electrification of heat.
On the other hand, another adjustment is coming. As Cinco Días points outmarketers are carrying an additional 3.3 billion euros this year due to technical restrictions. They are not fully impacting it, but they will. Iberdrola anticipates that 70% of its free market clients will notice these costs when renewing rates in 2025; in 2027, it will be 90%. In other words, this winter it drops, but the rates in 2026 and 2027 might not be so benign.
In search of alternatives. While gas experiences ups and downs and electricity continues to be marked by volatility, solid biomass—pellets, chips, olive pits—continues to be the most economical option in the country. According to the Biomass Price Indices collected by Heat and Cold, The average cost is:
- Sliver: 3.34 c€/kWh
- Bone: 4.68 c€/kWh
- Pellet: 6.95 c€/kWh
Facing:
- TUR2 natural gas: 8.59 c€/kWh
- Diesel C: 7.98 c€/kWh
- Electricity (heat pump): > 10 c€/kWh useful
Furthermore, prices remain stable and production is national, with more than 60 pellet factories and dozens of olive chip and stone centers. A close, robust market with little exposure to international tensions.
There is a more modern alternative. Surely you have heard about it: aerothermal energy. To be honest, it is expensive to install—between 10,000 and 20,000 euros—but extremely efficient: for every unit of electricity it consumes, it provides between 3.5 and 4 units of heat.
With more renewables pushing the rate downwards in solar hours and an ETS2 that will make gas more expensive, the heat pump becomes the most profitable option in 10–15 years. According to Revuelta, the economic difference will widen year after year and regulation will push in the same direction.
But there is a lot of talk about green hydrogen… True, green hydrogen makes news, but it will not yet heat homes. The last thing that is known is that Enegás has received 285 applications to inject hydrogen into the network by blending. However, the current technical limit is 2% of the volume, insufficient for domestic heating.
The first real injections will arrive in spring 2026, but they will be experimental. Hydrogen will not play a real role in residential heating until well into the 2030s.
The tension in Europe. Spain arrives more comfortably into winter than northern Europe. But it is not isolated. As far as we know The regasification plants in the Netherlands operate at 90–100%, their technical limit. They are the main LNG gateway for Germany and part of the European industry. Its saturation is “the prelude to higher prices.” Spain could help, but it can’t. Interconnections with France barely allow shipping between 7,000 and 8,500 million m³ per year.
Added to this is another structural factor. According to The Economistmore than 57% of the LNG that Europe imports already comes from the United States, which some analysts consider a new dependence comparable to that which existed with Russia. And, furthermore, the European Union enters winter with reserves at 83%, below the target of 90%.
A calmer winter… But an uncertain future. This winter the radiators will turn on with less fear. Gas is cheaper, electricity is relaxed and biomass offers an economical way. Heat pumps are consolidated as the great alternative for the future, and hydrogen begins its journey—although without immediate impact for homes.
But calm is relative. Spain—and Europe—are still trapped between two models: the one they want —decarbonized, electrified, flexible— and the one that really operates —dependent on gas, LNG and saturated infrastructure.
This winter will be kinder, yes. But the underlying question for every Spaniard remains open: how much longer will we be able to heat our homes as we have until now? and at what price?
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