Japan has entered a unprecedented demographic phase for an advanced economy: retirement mass of the generation that supported its industry coincides with a young one that is too small (and unwilling) to occupy the jobs that this economy requires to continue functioning. On paper, global demand for certain domestically manufactured goods has never been higher, but in the engine room, those who know how to produce them are aging without substitutes.
Fabric turned into luxury. He japanese denimslowly woven, dense and dyed with natural indigo in repeated cycles, enjoys a moment of consecration worldwide: Dior, Balenciaga and other luxury houses incorporate it, celebrities exhibit it, the market projects grow more than 85% until 2035 and tourism (supported by a weak yen) triple sales in Kojima’s “Jeans Street.”
For an industry that had been hollowed out by decades of cheap imports, the return of demand is not marginal but cultural: the value resides in the texturethe way indigo ages and in that kind of aura of exclusivity that results from real and not cosmetic scarcity. In fact, brands with Japanese only website and without direct export they increase that breath of rarity and price.
Without a job when it is most demanded. The apogee has arrived when the productive base collapses: There are barely fifty artisans left in the founding heart of the japanese selvedgethe average age is close to seventy, and apprentices last months before giving up due to noise, heat, grease, discipline and slowness.
Bloomberg counted that the skill curve is not linear: it takes six months to five years to operate the loom and up to a decade to maintain and repair it. With the master generation entering retirement and entrepreneurs without time to transmit the trade, continuity is broken by calendar, not by market.
Ancient technology. The shuttle looms of the early 20th century (now relics) allow continuous edging what gives the “selvedge” and the density of the weave that produces an unmistakable drape, feel and aging in the fabric. Japan came to have 300,000 machines of this type.
The problem? Today there are less than 400 operationsa lower third a single signature. To maintain them you have to remove pieces of other machines already stopped and work at a pace that doesn’t fit with today’s industry. They cannot be replaced by automation without losing exactly what the customer pays for: a finish that only time gives on a slow-made fabric.
What is authentic is paid for. Plus: the one who pays For this denim you are not looking just for the feel, but for a product that takes time to make, that ages well and does not depend on the rapid rotation of fashion. In other words, this preference fits with the rejection of fast-fashion and a turn towards objects designed to last.
The signs are many and clear: Levi’s sells “Blue Tab” lines for twice the price of a normal 501, Capital places jeans worth several hundred or thousands of dollars, and funds linked to the almighty LVMH they invest in Kojima brands.
The problem of aging. Japan is getting older faster than there is time to teach the trade. The factories have plenty of orders, but they cannot get hire or train substitutes. The owners travel and manage, but they do not have hours to teach, and the machines will be lost due to lack of parts and hands that know how to maintain them.
If the drift continues like this, the problem will not be a lack of demand but capacity: in about ten years (according to own manufacturers) this type of product will no longer be able to be made because neither the technicians nor the machines will be able to work.
There are no shortcuts. The final paradox is that the boom of the sector It doesn’t seem like it’s going to save the job, rather it accelerate towards the limit: The more demand grows, the more it squeezes the few remaining hands and the less time there is to teach others.
Thus, the world Japanese denim is faced with a disturbing choice: slow down the pace to transmit the trade (even if that means losing sales in the short term) or exploit the latest generation until it is exhausted, knowing that this would leave a product that will possibly disappear, not due to lack of market, but because no one will be able to do it anymore.
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