Japan seems to have found the key to solve its demographic crisisperhaps the most serious problem, entrenched and apparently unsolvable (apparently) that the country faces. The latest data of the Government show that last year the nation softened its birth rate thanks to babies born to foreign couples. Not only did they grow in net terms, they also grew proportionally, partially alleviating the disaster of Japanese households.
It is nothing that many other countries have not experienced before, including Spainbut there, in Japan, the data fuels the debate on immigration.
What has happened? That the latest statistics from the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare show that Japanese demographics are advancing at two very different rates. If we talk about Japanese households (local population), the birth rate is clearly declining, with around 41,000 fewer babies in a matter of a year.
Things are, however, very different when we look at foreign couples. Among them, the same indicator has skyrocketed to almost total 23,000 babies3,000 more than in 2023. The global birth rate remains negative, but it casts little doubt on its demographic driver.
What does the data say? That immigration is the lifeblood of Japanese demography. And without a doubt also. The government figures, which show the balance for 2024 and have been published by Nikkei, They reflect how immigration has softened the country’s population setback. In 2024, the government registered 22,878 births of “foreign citizens in Japan,” a label that identifies babies born to foreign parents or a single foreign mother.
The data is interesting for three main reasons. First, because they represent 3,000 more than in 2023. Second, because if we look even further back to gain perspective, we see that it represents a growth of 50% in a decade. And third, because thanks to this trend, foreign newborns now account for 3.2% of all births in Japan. It is a percentage very similar to the weight of the foreign population in the country: 3.6 million on a total of 124 million.
And Japanese couples? The opposite has happened with them. Among Japanese couples, 686,173 births41,115 less than in 2023. If the blow of that ‘hole’ was not greater in the country’s final census, it was precisely because the foreign birth rate grew to provide almost 23,000 babies.
Particularly noteworthy is the number of children born to mothers of Chinese origin (4,237), Filipino (1,897) and Brazilian (1,351). The remaining 14,425 births are attributed to a much broader and more diffuse category called “other nationalities”, which include, for example, Vietnam or Nepal.
How many foreigners are there in Japan? Not that many, actually. The Nikkei agency specifies that at least at the end of 2024 in Japan there were around 3.77 million resident foreigners, more or less 3% of the global population. It represents a historical maximum and, above all, a sufficient volume to have strained the migratory pressure between the hottest topics of the national public debate.
It is especially relevant that the big surprise of the July elections was Sanseito, a populist party that stands out (among other things) for the harshness of his speech against foreigners and tourism. In fact their motto was “Japan first”with which it won 14 seats and became the third force in the opposition. Even the candidates to preside over the PLD, including Sanae Takaichiwho will probably be the country’s new prime minister, toughened their speech.
Why is it important? Because it shows the extent to which Japan faces an existential dilemma. The increase in the foreign population has become a topic of debate, but at the same time official data show that right now it is its demographic float. And that is not a minor issue in a country that has long been mired in a deep birth crisis that is undermining its census and aging society, with all the implications that this entails at an economic, labor, social and health level or even for defense of the nation.
Is the situation so serious? In 2024 the country lost more than 900,000 people, a historic collapse that left its global census around 124.3 million of people, far from the maximum 126.6 million registered in 2009. Not only that. The ‘national’ birth rate (among Japanese) stood at its lowest level since there are records (1899) and the country has seen how those over 65 years of age have come to represent around 30% of the global population. Among foreign residents, 56% They move between 20 and 30 years old.
Images | Yanhao Fang (Unsplash) 1 and 2
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