The story of Shayne Coplan and Polymarket is one of those striking cases that you like to see in the past. And the founder of this company practically started from bankruptcy in a makeshift bathroom as an office to close a $2 billion investment on the New York Stock Exchange. Now, the prediction markets platform that he founded in 2020 has just reached a valuation of $8 billion after the agreement with Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), owner of the NYSE.
The takeoff. Coplan’s situation in 2020 was not exactly an example of the American dream. Just like shared a while ago In a publication in X, he was seen working from a bathroom converted into an office, with hardly any money and alone in charge of the project. Five years later, its platform has become the largest prediction market in the world, where users bet on the results of real events, from elections to sports or culture.
Wall Street’s bet. ICE has announced an investment of up to $2 billion in cash in Polymarket, valuing the company at approximately $8 billion before the capital injection. The agreement turns ICE into a global distributor from Polymarket data, which will provide sentiment indicators on topics relevant to financial markets. Additionally, both companies will collaborate on tokenization initiatives that combine traditional financial markets with blockchain technology.
How the model works. Polymarket allows users to express their opinions by buying and selling shares on possible event outcomes. Each operation is executed peer-to-peer using smart contracts. Markets grow with the number of participants, and prices reflect the perceived probability of each outcome occurring. The platform gained notoriety for the accuracy of their predictions during the 2024 US presidential electionwhere he managed billions in bets.
roller coaster. Polymarket’s trajectory has not been linear. In 2022, federal regulators forced the platform to block US users after an agreement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The company operated from abroad for three years. This year, Polymarket bought QCEXa CFTC-licensed derivatives exchange, to return to the US market. The operation came weeks after prosecutors closed an investigation into whether the company had allowed access to American users despite the ban.
Return at the perfect time. The changing regulatory climate under the Trump administration has favored emerging sectors such as event contracts and cryptocurrencies. Polymarket received an undisclosed investment in August from 1789 Capital, a firm endorsed by Donald Trump Jr., who later joined the company’s advisory board.
What’s coming now. Jeffrey Sprecher, CEO of ICE, admits proudly that the investment combines an institution founded in 1792 (the NYSE), with a company that “is revolutionizing decentralized finance.” For Coplan, the agreement marks the entry of prediction markets into the traditional financial system. It remains to be seen whether these markets can maintain their growth and become truly useful tools for institutional investors. For now, ICE has bet heavily on the response being positive.
Cover image | Shayne Coplan and Matthew Reeves (BFA)
GIPHY App Key not set. Please check settings