Trump, accompanied by Netanyahu, has presented An ambitious plan of peace that seeks to end almost two years of war in Gaza, releasing Israeli hostages and opening a reconstruction process under international supervision. Its scheme demands the surrender of Hamas, the total disarmament and its political exclusion, offering in return the release of about 2,000 Palestinian prisoners and the massive entry of humanitarian aid.
TO Your ultimatum He has hours left for the conflict of a 360 degree turn.
An unexpected plan. Unlike previous proposals that were limited to partial truces, the one now intends a definitive cessation of hostilities, with a period of just 72 hours (now about 48) so that Hamas delivers all captives.
Israel would keep troops in A safety corridor Within Gaza and in damping areas, but it would commit to partial replication, while a Palestinian Technical Committee Under the tutelage of A “Board of Peace” chaired by Trump and with Tony Blair in a prominent role. The project, prepared in consultations with Israel, Qatar, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, has been qualified by the White House as the most realistic route to close the war and redraw the future of the strip.
The concessions to Netanyahu. Netanyahu achieved, to a large extent, Impose your conditions: Hamas would be out of any future administration, the Palestinian authority would only have a hypothetical role subject to drastic reforms, and the creation of a Palestinian state would be deferred to an indefinite horizon.
If you want, for the Israeli prime minister, internationally cornered after European recognitions of a Palestinian State and after the Boicot in the United Nationsit was a kind of Rare Diplomatic Victoria: together with Trump he was able to show that he still controls the times and that Washington supports his “total victory” strategy.
The right. However, this same position opens cracks within Israel, where the radical right accuses the government of Claudicar by accepting a plan with Symbolic concessions to the Palestinian cause and with the introduction of foreign forces in Gaza.
Smotrich and Ben-Gvir They have warned that could demolish the coalition if the agreement becomes a definitive peace that freezes the military offensive, which predicts political turbulence that Netanyahu tries to dodge with procedure maneuvers, such as avoiding taking the entire plan to the vote of the security cabinet.
The pressure on Hamas. For Hamas, The proposal is lethal In political terms: he would mean the end of his domain in Gaza after almost two decades, the disarmament of his brigades and the delivery of his last hostages without guarantees of future influence. Even so, the group faces an unpublished pressure: Türkiye, Qatar and Egypt have expressed support for the plan and warn that Hamas’s time runs out.
Many analysts They point that the direction of the militia seeks a “decent landing” that saves part of its paintings and avoid total annihilation, but any acceptance of the agreement would mean cross the red lines He has always proclaimed, especially the maintenance of his armed arm. In that context, Trump launched that public ultimatum: “Three or four days” to answer, accompanied by the threat that Hamas will “pay in hell” if he rejects the offer. The dilemma for Islamist leaders is clear: giving and surviving politically in exile or resisting and risking that Israel resumes an even more devastating offensive.
The Arab mediators. In this case, Arab countries have gone from rhetoric to direct involvement. Saudi Arabia, Emirates, Egypt, Jordan and Qatar have transmitted to Washington and Israel A list of conditions: No to the annexation of Gaza, not to the forced displacement of Palestinians, not to new settlements, and yes to a horizon of Palestinian self -determination.
Although Trump’s plan does not fully satisfy these demands, he has incorporated concessions as the mention of a possible “credible route towards Palestinian self -determination” if the Palestinian authority undertakes reforms. The paradox is that the authority itself, weakened and discredited, has Backed the plan With enthusiasm, accepting to review your textbooks, eliminate payments to prisoners and open to international scrutiny in order not to be excluded. For Arab states, the priority is close the war frontcontain humanitarian drift and keep the prospects for the solution of two states alive, even in a rhetorical framework.
Internal risks in Israel. We said it before, the agreement threatens to fracture The Israeli coalition. While the centrist opposition supports him as a realistic basis to recover hostages and stop the war, the ultra -nationalist parties perceive it as an inadmissible assignment. The fear of Smotrich and Ben-Gvir is that to accept international forces and a Palestinian administration, even if it is technocratic, EROSIONE ISRAELI CONTROL and leave the door open to a future Palestinian state.
Netanyahu tries to keep the Delicate balance: Present the agreement as a triumph in Washington and before the international community, but reassuring its right -wing base ensuring that Israel will retain military presence in Gaza and will never allow a sovereign Palestinian state. This double discourse reflects the fragility of your government, increasingly dependent on maintaining the security narrative against external demands.
Trump’s disappointment. The change in tone of Trump himself to Israel does not cease to be striking. In private And in recent statements, the US president has shown An unusual anger with Netanyahu for unilateral attacks that have put the mediation of Washington, such as the bombardment in Doha against Hamas leaders when a fire was discussed.
Trump se Feel disappointed So consider a lack of reciprocity: while he has sustained Israel in the international arena, Netanyahu has acted so that weakens the strategy North American diplomatic. This disenchantment, also applicable To the “Russian friend” In the Ukraine War, explains the Plan turnwhich is no longer just a blank check for Israel, but a frame with commitments and deadlines, in which it is even mentioned, even if it is vaguely, the perspective of a Palestinian state.
Gaza under international administration. Thus, things, the plan also opens the door to a stage that until recently seemed little less than a fantasy: the Gaza Internationalization as demilitarized territory under external supervision. The proposal contemplates the creation of A multinational force (Probably composed of Arab or Muslim troops) responsible for stabilizing the enclave, training a Palestinian police and ensuring the disarmament of Hamas.
The idea remembers international missions In Kosovo either Darfurin which peace forces acted as guarantors of security and political transition. Reports in The New York Times They emphasize that in Washington and in several European capitals the viability of a protected administration model that avoids both the return of Hamas and the direct occupation of Israel is already studied. Although highly controversial, the option reflects the lack of confidence that local parties can sustain for themselves a lasting peace and marks a radical change with respect to the traditional formulas applied to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
Uncertainty. It is possibly the word that best explains the next 48 hours. He Trump plan Face huge unknowns: Will Hamas accept A total disarmamentCan Netanyahu maintain its intact coalition? Will Arab countries give to finance and contribute troops to a stabilization mission? Despite international backups (from France to Germany, from Türkiye to Saudi Arabia), the implementation will depend on the fact that the actors on the ground undergo a scheme that limits their traditional aspirations.
If it fails, the risk is to return to the total war, with razed gaza, isolated Israel and the regional balance even more eroded. But if it thrives, I could open A new stage: A gaza guarded by the international community, without Hamas as a central actor, and with a faint promise of the Palestinian future in a framework that, surprisingly, was born from Trump’s unlikely combination, Blair and a Netanyahu Against the strings.
Image | Jahad Badwan JaberAshraf Amra, PicrylAshraf Amra
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