China has been hoarding copper for months. And the rest of the world are dedicating ourselves to look

After the Rare earthChina has made copper its new geopolitical weapon. It only produces 4% of world reserves, but already controls 49% of the world refining and is buying raw materials at an industrial scale.

Why is it important. More than accumulating raw materials, China is building an intentional bottleneck in the most strategic metal supply chain of the 21st century.

• Copper is indispensable for AI data centers, electric cars, solar panels and electrical networks.
• Who controls your refining will control the technological transition worldwide.

In figures. The numbers are overwhelming:

This mathematics is only possible to buy into mass abroad: import minerals from Chile and Peru, and junk of the United States. Then he processes everything in its low -cost melters.

The general panoramic. The Chinese strategy shows sophistication that goes far beyond commercial opportunism. He has created a refining infrastructure distributed throughout the country (Jiangxi, Anhui, Guangxi, Shandong, Jiangsu) that can process any type of copper mineral at prices that no competitor can match.

USA is exporting concentrates and scrap metalbut it does not have that refining capacity. Instead, China imports them, processes and turns finished products.

Between the lines. He Timing This accumulation is not accidental. It coincides with the escalation of commercial tensions with the United States and the strategic approach to Afghanistan, which has large copper deposits.

For China, controlling copper refining is an insurance policy in the face of a possible naval block of its commercial routes with Chile, Peru and Australia. Afghanistan thus becomes its only safe terrestrial source of copper.

Yes, but. This strategy has a hidden cost that is already being manifested.

1. Chinese foundations operate with negative margins due to the scarcity of copper ore and excess refining capacity.
2. Some have already closed or suspended operations.
3. The Syomine company has paralyzed its Namibia plantGlencore closed its foundry of the Philippines.

China is paying a high economic price to maintain its dominant position.

At stake. The commercial war is spreading to copper. Mexico has imposed 50% tariffs on Chinese products After Trump’s pressures, and China has threatened with reprisals. Mexico contributes 5% of Chinese copper mineral imports. If China cuts these imports, Southern Copper and the entire Mexican sector will suffer. But China needs each ton of available mineral.

The money trail. Investors They have put 2.3 billion dollars in copper funds this year45% more than in 2024. They recognize the obvious: there is scarcity and China controls the refining tap. Accumulating copper is also a financial commitment in a deficit market.

China has played a master letter. He turned his lack of own deposits in industrial domain: controls the refining, the link that adds the most value. But it has an Achilles heel that is to depend on importing minerals from countries that can become enemies. It is the dilemma of power in a fractured world: you need those who can betray you.

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Outstanding image | Joanna Kosinska