“Those who expect a hurricane appreciate a storm.” The phrase It is from Wolfang Groe Entrup, president of the German Association of the Chemical Industry (VCI) and summarizes well the feeling with which a good part of the political class and economy of the European Union yesterday contemplated the handshake of Ursual von der Leyen and Donald Trump that puts an end (and final?) To the commercial tension escalation of recent months. The EU accepts that its exports to the other side of the Atlantic are penalized by a 15%general tariff. And he will do it without reciprocity and with a small print still pending to specify and promise crucial.
In Spain there are two sectors They are already on guard: wine and olive oil.
What happened? That after months of pull and loosencrosses of percentages and threats of tariffs of Up to 50%USA and the EU have finally reached a framework agreement for their commercial relations. They are still unknowns, but on Sunday the president of the European Commission (CE), Ursula von der Leyen, and his counterpart Donald Trump, closed A pact which establishes a general tax of 15% to European exports. The agreement was sealed away from the White House or Brussels, in a Scottish golf course that belongs to Trump himself.
What did they agree? The key fact is that 15% general tariff that will apply to community exports that cross the Atlantic to the US. The other pillar of the pact is that there will be no reciprocity. The imports ‘Made in USA’ will not face a similar rate in the Union, which also assumes the commitment to buy American energy products for the next years by 750,000 million of dollars and raise your investment to 600,000 million.
The agreement nevertheless includes a small print equally important that still throws some doubts. It is known that Washington will maintain a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum, although von der read clarified that this rate could be replaced by a quota system as negotiations are outlined, and that the US will apply exceptions to certain goods that are strategic for the country.
What exceptions? The thick stroke is known. During Your intervention In Scotland von der Leyen only gave some clues, without delving into details: “We have agreed zero tariffs for several strategic products. This includes all aircraft and components, certain chemicals, certain generic, semiconductor equipment, certain agricultural products, natural resources and essential raw materials. We will continue working to add more to the list.”
His words soon generate reactions and Not a few criticism that consider it unknown or harmful to Europe. In Spain, for example, Pedro Sánchez “supported him”, but “Without any enthusiasm”. Some, like the German industry, have warned of its “negative repercussions” for Europe. Others, like The winemakerthat they have been expectant Before the dialogue between Washington and Brussels, they are claiming that a “zero tariff” be applied to wine and They warn of the serious consequences if a 10%tariff is maintained.
Union of Unions assures That, “according to the first transcended information”, the list of exempt strategic goods leaves out “products of great relevance to Spain”, such as wine, olive oil, chees or hams.
Is it so serious? According to The data Americans, last year the trade of goods between the US and the EU amounted to 975,000 million dollars, with a flow of European imports well higher than that of exports. In 2024 Spain exported goods worth more than 21.200 million And there are studies that indicate that the impact of tariffs would not be excessive: According to the IMFthe direct impact for our country is one tenth of GDP for every 10 percentage points of American tariffs applied to the European Union.
“A priori, the direct impact would be limited. Total sales to the US represented only 4.7% of the total Spanish exports in 2024, so it would be a limited affection. However, it could be relevant in the sectors with a greater exposure to the American market,” warns The Chamber of Commerce of Spain. Among them there are two keys for the weight that the US has in its exports: The wine and olive oil. As a reference, it is estimated that only between Spain and Italy export 65% of the oil that the country needs.
What does the wine sector say? It is expectant. “It seems that in the next few days there could be negotiations for certain agricultural products, zero by zero, which is what the European and American sectors have been asking for,” says José Luis Benítez, of the Spanish Wine Federation, in statements collected today by The country. “If there is any exception, we hope that the European Commission (CE) understands that the wine should be one of them.”
The European Committee of Viticultural Companies already He has claimed to the Union and the United States that its agreement includes wine among its goods with “zero tariffs”, which a priori, as advanced yesterday in Scotland, will include some agricultural products. “The EU-EEU Wine Trade has been a beneficial mutual relationship,” claims. “For every dollar that Europeans get selling wine to the US, the American distribution and the hospitality sectors get 4.5”.
And the oil? Asaja Jaén spokesman, Luis Carlos Valero, Recognize That the imposition of 15% is “totally negative” for their interests, although at the moment it is cautious: “You have to wait to really see how these tariffs are applied.” In the past, the olive oil sector has already faced taxes imposed by Donadld Trump, but only the packaged product penalized, so they recognize that if that same pattern was repeated the impact would be “minimal.”
“The vast majority of exporters who go to the US have located the packagers and takes bulk, therefore we would be exempt from that tariff,” reason In an interview with Europa Press in which he insists that he is still “very soon.” “You have to wait to really see what this is, how it applies.”
Are there more reactions? Yes. And his tone varies from concern to anger or expectation. THE SPANISH FEDERATION OF FOOD AND DRINK INDUSTRIES He has labeled the “unfair and unbalanced” pact, while union of farmers and livestock unions warns that the 15% general tariff will be “a hard blow for emblematic Spanish exports such as wine and oil.”
The agency recognizes that the agreement avoids major evils and provides “some stability” to transatlantic trade, but still alerts its conditions. “Trump has put on the table that it was scare or death and the EU has swallowed, accepting conditions that seriously harm its farmers and ranchers,” regrets The agrarian organization, which sees the “unbalanced” agreement. The Aolive Organization too prevents of distortions in the market that will have the agreement reached yesterday in Scotland between the EU and the US.
Images | EC and Ursula von der Leyen (x)
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