Just a couple of days ago, weather models They began to glimpse The possible formation of a new isolated depression in height, a Dana, on the waters of the Atlantic. The observations are confirming the expected and now the experts warn of the arrival of a phenomenon that is expected intense.
Special notice. The State Meteorology Agency (Aemet) has issued a special notice for storms and intense rainfall associated with the newly formed Dana. The situation will affect the northern half and third this peninsular between tomorrow 11 and Saturday, July 12.
What’s happening. At the beginning of this week, meteorologists proved that the Peninsula had been divided between two air masses, one to the north, under the influence of vaguades and a mass of cold air, and another to the south with anticyclonic time in which heat resisted leaving. The days have passed and but the apparent return of stability and heat has been just a mirage, at least for part of the country.
The reason is the decoration of a Dana, an area of low height pressures that is separating from the cold circulation of the north. This Dana is being formed to the west of the Iberian Peninsula and will soon arrive by the atmospheric circulation itself.
What we can expect. Aemet’s special notice speaks From the arrival of “high adversity storms in the northern and third half of our territory, accompanied locally of large hail, very strong wind and very strong showers.”
Tomorrow, Friday 11, they await us according to the agency storms that would gain intensity from the afternoon both in the Cantabrian mountain range and in the Iberian system, and that they would go little by little by moving north or northeast. These storms could lead to hail of size greater than 2 cm in diameter and showers that would accumulate up to 30-40 mm in an hour, in addition to “very strong” wind gusts.
On Saturday 12, Aemet sees “likely” that the Dana is moving to the east, which would take instability to the west peninsular and, especially, to the northeast quadrant.
Uncertainty. The forecasts They point out the probable arrival of this extreme but Aemet event warns of a certain degree of uncertainty. As they explain, the probability that the arrival of the Dana has storms and intense rainfall is “very high”, greater than 70%, but not total. As they detail, “the described scenario is quite likely, the uncertainty inherent to this type of disturbances makes it difficult to specify the areas where a greater impact will occur.”
Uncertainty increases the more we move away in time, but the agency estimates that the Dana’s passage does not have major impacts from Sunday, day 13.
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Image | ECMWF
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