cars and trains

At the beginning of June echoes began to arrive from a situation that could now explode. Car manufacturers and their suppliers gave the alarm voice before a gloomy horizon facing the shortage of supplies due to restrictions on Chinese exports of rare, mineral and magnets. In fact, the problem has forced some to suspend the production of certain models. Now everything is complicated a little more, because those minerals are not essential only for cars.

They are also for war.

Mitigation strategies. When the first alarm voices sounded in June the reaction of the great European manufacturers was disparate. BMW confirmed that part of their supplier network had already been affected, while Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz now assured maintaining a Stable supplythanks to long -term strategies to reduce critical mineral dependence. Mercedes, for example, said to be working on New compositions of materials that allow to dispense with heavy rare earths such as disposium in its electrical propulsion trains.

However, most recognized that it was a situation Very volatile. From Japan, Nissan confirmed to be coordinating with his government and the association of car manufacturers in the country to find solutions, while Suzuki had already suspended the production of Your swift model.

Rearme and bottlenecks. Everything has been complicated a little more since Europe has confirmed that plan to rearma increasing 5% of GDP In defense. The vertiginous increase in military expenditure in Europe, which provides for a growth of up to 80% between 2024 and 2030, threatens to stress even more an already weakened industrial supply chain.

The plan, promoted after the Russian invasion of Ukraine and consolidated by countries such as Germany, France and the United Kingdom, will carry the military budget of the current 417,000 million euros to a estimated figure between 650,000 and 750,000 million euros.

Collateral effects They counted In Forbes That only one third of these funds will be used for equipment, the accelerated growth of the aerospace and defense sector will have Collateral effects Notable on civil industries, especially those that depend on the same suppliers.

For example? Saturation indications have already been detected in the Aeronautical productionas demonstrated by the reduction in the delivery of commercial airplanes, which in 2024 remained a 30% below of the peak achieved in 2018. This mismatch is just an advance of the funnel that can be generated when manufacturers prioritize military contracts (more lucrative and long -term) to the detriment of sectors such as rail, automotive or energy, which depend on shared technical supplies such as sensors, hydraulics, connectors or electronic cards.

Vulnerable pieces. An analysis of more than 600 secondary suppliers in the European market has revealed a dangerous overlap between defense needs and value chains of strategic civil industries. In industrial machinery, for example, the availability of fundamental components such as bearings, mechatronics or pneumatic systems could be drastically reduced as suppliers redirect productive capacity towards war applications.

Trains and cars. In the railway sector, key pieces such as printed circuit plates, microelectronics or control units also compete for the same origin. The automotive industry, already beaten by the recent scarcity of semiconductorsrun special danger: the growing Military demand It can aggravate the lack of harnesses, cables, sensors and hydraulic systems, delving a production crisis that barely begins to stabilize.

Even the energy sector will be affected by the growing wiring shortage Technician, connectors and transmission elements that form the backbone of their critical infrastructure. This transverse tension could trigger a new wave of delays, increase in costs and productivity drop throughout the European economy.

Uncertain future. In addition, the Expenditure acceleration military arrives in a context where global supply chains have not fully recovered from a marked decade for chained crises: the pandemicthe War in Ukrainelogistics collapse during the rise of electronic commerce, and more recently, the threat of commercial wars and crossed tariffs.

Despite this, most companies continue to manage their value chains reactivelywithout a clear proactive strategy that allows future disruptions to be anticipated. This lack of forecast exposes entire sectors to the risk of productive collapses at a time of fierce international competition, where Logistics agility It is as critical as technological innovation. In fact, we have a clue as a mirror with the most immediate precedent (the world scarcity of semiconductors between 2020 and 2023), which showed that, without anticipatory vision, even the most robust industries can be paralyzed.

The new industrial order. Faced with this panorama, analysts point out various strategies Urgent to prevent the rise of rearme dragging with the civil economy. It points to companies diversify Its supplier bases, homologate new supply channels, improve transparency with logistics partners and establish internal monitoring cells that operate in real time for anticipate disruptionsin the style of the mechanisms created during the chips crisis.

Plus: Take advantage of the future that is already here, incorporating Predictive analysis and AI tools that allow emerging bottlenecks to be detected and redirect supply flows quickly. As explained The transport expert Sebastian Janssen, the resilience can no longer be a reactive quality, “but a structural asset of the business model.”

If you want also, in a Europe where Rearme accelerates And the industry competes for the same gearthe ability to resist shaking Logistics will make the difference between surviving and disappearing and, along the way, of making our lives a little less complicated.

Image | BORN, Get Archive, Ken Heaton

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