La Niña is going to be meteorologically “less intense” than we expected. And that actually hides a problem.

There is a 55% chance that the world will cross the La Niña thresholds in the coming weeks. And although The World Meteorological Organization insists that it will probably be a weak and brief episode, that does not mean that it will not cause us problems.

Many problems, in fact.

First because it is going to catch us with a changed pace. When world meteorological agencies indicate that La Niña will be low in intensity, what they are also doing (often inadvertently) is telling authorities that it won’t be that bad.

And that is technically true, but socially speaking it is a mistake.

WMO

A global event… Let us remember that, with the exception of the seasons, ENSO (of which La Niña is a phase) constitutes the most important source of annual climate variability from all over the planet. It is true that the cold phase usually has less impact than the warm one, but the teleconnections of The Girl They are still huge and so is their impact.

…with an impact worthy of its size. In fact, under “normal conditions”, with a 55% chance of it arriving this quarter, many countries would be preparing for its consequences. Above all, because, under “normal conditions”, there are many: For example, in the southeast of the American continent temperatures become warmer than normal.

Likewise, they get colder in the Northeast. Less rainfall than normal is expected in Ecuador and Peru, and torrential rains are expected in Northeast Brazil. In Mexico, it is common for La Niña to cause (or make more intense) drought in the north and center of the country, while increasing torrential rainfall in the Pacific, the southern Gulf of Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula.

In Spain, for its part, it is usually synonymous with less rain. In other words, bad news.

But we are not in “normal conditions.” As I say, the WMO messages they are precise; but they act as confusing signals: the administrations are not preparing. And that, whether we want it or not, can turn even the most lukewarm of Las Niñas into thousands of problems on a regional scale.

But we must also take into account the global scenario. Because, as the WMO also points outLa Niña may bring slight global cooling. However, this should not motivate a reduction in efforts against climate change: the accumulated warming is so great that temperatures will most likely remain above average.

That is, climate change is still underway. And, unlike other years, not even La Niña can do anything to contain it.

Image | Climate Reanalyzer

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